What if nobody comes to Taiwan's defense?
Would the U.S. defend Taiwan? Trump won't say, but semiconductors and geography tie China's strategy to the West's. An analysis of the geopolitical board.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Taiwan: the island nobody wants to defend (but everyone needs)
Washington's strategic ambiguity over Taiwan has never been so explicit. During his summit with Xi Jinping, Donald Trump responded with an evasive "I don't talk about that" when the Chinese president directly asked whether he would defend the island in the event of an attack. The answer, leaked from Air Force One, removes any doubt about the United States' real willingness to shield Taiwan. But geopolitics doesn't rest on promises alone: there are interests that bind.
The semiconductor knot
Taiwan accounts for more than 60% of the world's advanced chip production. Without that supply, the American and European economies would fall back a decade within months. That's why, while Washington plays dumb, it is accelerating the relocation of the industry to its own territory. The problem is that takes years, and time favors Beijing. As has been noted, "the USA won't abandon Taiwan until it believes it is self-sufficient in semiconductors." The question is whether that autonomy will arrive before China decides to act.
China's geographic prison
China has a long coastline, but its access to deep waters is blocked by a chain of Japanese islands —the last one, Yonaguni, just 100 km from Taiwan— and by the Philippine archipelago to the south. The only direct outlet to open sea is the Taiwan Strait. That's why controlling the island is not an irredentist whim: it is a strategic necessity for the Chinese navy to operate without depending on third parties. "China has no choice, it needs to control Taiwan," sums up one line of analysis.
Two scenarios, one outcome
Opinions are divided between those who believe Taiwan will fall without resistance, like "ripe fruit," in less than two decades, and those who bet that the United States will intervene to protect the chip supply chain. But even among optimists it is admitted that Taiwan's defense capability is limited: if Ukraine resisted with chips from washing machines, the Taiwanese have far more technology in their favor. The real dilemma is not whether they could defend themselves, but whether anyone would come to their aid. The answer, as of today, is a calculated silence.
Related debates in the forum
Washington's strategic ambiguity over Taiwan has never been so explicit. During his summit with Xi Jinping, Donald Trump responded with an evasive "I don't talk about that" when the Chinese president directly asked whether he would defend the island in the event of an attack. The answer, leaked from Air Force One, removes any doubt about the United States' real willingness to shield Taiwan. But geopolitics doesn't rest on promises alone: there are interests that bind.
The semiconductor knot
Taiwan accounts for more than 60% of the world's advanced chip production. Without that supply, the American and European economies would fall back a decade within months. That's why, while Washington plays dumb, it is accelerating the relocation of the industry to its own territory. The problem is that takes years, and time favors Beijing. As has been noted, "the USA won't abandon Taiwan until it believes it is self-sufficient in semiconductors." The question is whether that autonomy will arrive before China decides to act.
China's geographic prison
China has a long coastline, but its access to deep waters is blocked by a chain of Japanese islands —the last one, Yonaguni, just 100 km from Taiwan— and by the Philippine archipelago to the south. The only direct outlet to open sea is the Taiwan Strait. That's why controlling the island is not an irredentist whim: it is a strategic necessity for the Chinese navy to operate without depending on third parties. "China has no choice, it needs to control Taiwan," sums up one line of analysis.
Two scenarios, one outcome
Opinions are divided between those who believe Taiwan will fall without resistance, like "ripe fruit," in less than two decades, and those who bet that the United States will intervene to protect the chip supply chain. But even among optimists it is admitted that Taiwan's defense capability is limited: if Ukraine resisted with chips from washing machines, the Taiwanese have far more technology in their favor. The real dilemma is not whether they could defend themselves, but whether anyone would come to their aid. The answer, as of today, is a calculated silence.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (26 replies).
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