US Republican Party shifts to Trumpism, altering global economy

The US Republican Party has ceased to be Reagan's party, transforming into a personality-driven structure centered on Donald Trump. This pivot carries specific economic and geopolitical consequences.

## From Reaganism to Personalism

The Republican Party that won four elections between **1980** and **1988** under **Ronald Reagan** championed free trade, deregulation, and Western leadership. That consensus has fractured. The party has drifted toward a model where personal loyalty outweighs policy platforms, and economic decisions are announced by decree and adjusted under pressure.

Under **Trump**, the US economy has experienced a mix of improvised tariffs, pressure on the Federal Reserve, and a deficit exceeding **7% of GDP** in fiscal year **2024**, according to Treasury data. This is not coordinated industrial policy; it is reactive interventionism.

## Tariffs Paid at Home

Tariffs on Chinese imports imposed since **2018** largely fell on US businesses and consumers, according to estimates from the Department of Commerce itself. The administration presented them as a trade victory, but the trade balance with China barely shifted.

The result is a trade policy that generates uncertainty and raises input costs. Companies investing in global supply chains have had to revise plans every few months.

## Ukraine and Foreign Policy Shift

Support for **Ukraine** has become political bargaining chip. The Administration has conditioned military aid already approved by Congress and publicly questioned the framework of **NATO**. For European allies, this signals that Washington is no longer a predictable partner.

The economic cost is significant: Ukrainian reconstruction and European rearmament are financed with debt, and markets are beginning to price in risk premiums due to transatlantic uncertainty.

## A Party Fighting for Survival

The structure of the **Grand Old Party** now depends on a single individual. If that person exits the stage, the party is left without a platform or its own leadership cadre. It is an institutional risk, not just an electoral one.

US economic policy affects global interest rates, the dollar, and trade. It is wise to trinc official data rather than statements, because the volatility of decisions makes any forecast quickly obsolete.