Uninhabitable Madrid by 2035? Turiel's prediction clashes with the data

Uninhabitable Madrid by 2035? Turiel's prediction clashes with the data

Can a city like Madrid reach 50 degrees in barely a decade? That is the warning issued by Antonio Turiel, a researcher at Spain's CSIC, who predicts that the Spanish capital will be uninhabitable by 2035 due to global warming. "It is a temperature incompatible with human life," the physicist claims. But the figure, alarming as it may be, does not match the historical records.

The thermometer does not back the prophecy

The weather station at Madrid-Barajas airport, which handles more than 40,000 operations a month, has a record high temperature of 42.2 degrees, set on 24 July 1995. Over the past 30 years, that maximum has risen by barely 0.5 degrees. In other words, reaching 50 degrees by 2035 would require a temperature jump not seen in three decades. "Get lost," one user snapped, summing up the scepticism of many.

But it is not all denial. Some point out that, even if absolute records are not broken, the heat has become more persistent. At Madrid-Sur, for example, 13 days above 38 degrees and 33 days above 36 degrees have been counted so far this summer. "We've had three months of heat with only about 15 days of relief," one observer notes. That did not happen in the 1980s or 1990s.

The other uninhabitable: housing and population pressure

Beyond the climate, another argument is gaining ground: Madrid is already uninhabitable for other reasons. The pressure on housing is brutal. It is estimated that the population of South American origin in Spain exceeds eight million, and those of North African origin two million. In the Community of Madrid, these groups would occupy at least a third of all homes, driving up prices and overcrowding. "Denying that this drives up housing prices is foolish," reads one comment in the debate.

The city, moreover, has lost its traditional character. Visitors are met with unbearable visual stress: crowds, noise and a transformation some describe as "razed". The feeling that Madrid is no longer liveable for anyone not used to the urban jungle keeps coming up.

What if air conditioning solves it?

Some remind us that cities like Dubai or Abu Dhabi thrive in the middle of the desert and are perfectly habitable thanks to air conditioning. Heat, in itself, does not kill if there is technology. The problem is that extreme heat in Madrid combines with an urban layout that turns the streets into ovens: asphalt and rooftops reach 65 degrees, and working in those conditions is an ordeal.

The final irony: if climate change does not drive us out, housing will. Or perhaps both at once. Meanwhile, Turiel's prediction divides opinion: some see it as a genuine warning, others as a catastrophist narrative serving an agenda. What is certain is that the data from the last 30 years show no trend as abrupt as the one being announced. But the persistent heat, the kind that never leaves, is already changing life in the capital.