Trump's help for Russia isn't stopping its decline in Ukraine
An analysis of Trump's alleged massive support for Russia and why the Kremlin is losing momentum in Ukraine despite it
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Trump and Russia: the support isn't enough to sustain the offensive
The thesis that former US president Donald Trump has provided massive help to Russia in its war against Ukraine is gaining traction among some analysts, but even those who defend it admit the Kremlin is losing momentum. The central argument of this school of thought is that Trump, during and after his term, would have favored Moscow through decisions such as the temporary suspension of intelligence sharing, the exemption from sanctions for Russian and Belarusian companies, the blocking of military aid packages to Ukraine for nearly half a year, and obstruction of investigations into war crimes and kidnapped children. Added to this is the multimillion-dollar purchase of Russian oil through Venezuela.
The real impact of the pro-Russian measures
However, data on the ground indicate that these measures have not translated into a decisive advantage for the Russian army. The war of attrition, the Ukrainian defense and European support – which some describe as massive – would be slowing the Russian advance. The EU, according to another school of thought, has provided substantial military and financial aid to Ukraine, while Trump's help for Russia would be indirect and limited. The absence of a lightning offensive and territorial losses in some areas suggest that, despite the gestures, the Kremlin has failed to capitalize on the alleged support.
Future prospects
Faced with this scenario, positions are divided between those who believe Russia can still launch a major offensive to occupy all of Ukraine – calling for a change in military doctrine – and those who see an inevitable strategic defeat. What no one disputes is that time is running against Moscow: the drone war against NATO, the extension of borders and the depletion of resources limit its options. The debate remains open: can Trump keep propping up Russia without it showing on the front line?
Related discussions in the forum
The thesis that former US president Donald Trump has provided massive help to Russia in its war against Ukraine is gaining traction among some analysts, but even those who defend it admit the Kremlin is losing momentum. The central argument of this school of thought is that Trump, during and after his term, would have favored Moscow through decisions such as the temporary suspension of intelligence sharing, the exemption from sanctions for Russian and Belarusian companies, the blocking of military aid packages to Ukraine for nearly half a year, and obstruction of investigations into war crimes and kidnapped children. Added to this is the multimillion-dollar purchase of Russian oil through Venezuela.
The real impact of the pro-Russian measures
However, data on the ground indicate that these measures have not translated into a decisive advantage for the Russian army. The war of attrition, the Ukrainian defense and European support – which some describe as massive – would be slowing the Russian advance. The EU, according to another school of thought, has provided substantial military and financial aid to Ukraine, while Trump's help for Russia would be indirect and limited. The absence of a lightning offensive and territorial losses in some areas suggest that, despite the gestures, the Kremlin has failed to capitalize on the alleged support.
Future prospects
Faced with this scenario, positions are divided between those who believe Russia can still launch a major offensive to occupy all of Ukraine – calling for a change in military doctrine – and those who see an inevitable strategic defeat. What no one disputes is that time is running against Moscow: the drone war against NATO, the extension of borders and the depletion of resources limit its options. The debate remains open: can Trump keep propping up Russia without it showing on the front line?
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (17 replies).
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