Trump warns Spain: You will end up like Cuba, Philippines, and Puerto Rico

Trump warns Spain: You will end up like Cuba, Philippines, and Puerto Rico

When a US president invokes Cuba, the Philippines, and Puerto Rico to threaten an ally, he is not making history: he is issuing warnings. Donald Trump’s remark against Spain, amid the debate over NATO defense spending, is clear. The Republican recalled that Washington “took everything” when Spain renounced its colonies, and that Spaniards will soon “learn.” The question is not whether the boast has merit, but what Trump is willing to do to enforce it.

Trump’s outburst: Spain is not a good ally

The US president has once again attacked his European partner. In his words, Spaniards “belong to NATO, but are not very good members,” and the proof is that “they do not want to help others.” The threat comes at a delicate moment: Washington has been pressuring alliance countries to increase military spending for months, and Spain is one of those who pays the least in percentage. Trump chose a strange example: the disaster of 1898, when Spain lost its last overseas possessions. “They will learn soon, just as when they renounced Cuba, Guam, the Philippines, and Puerto Rico, and they all became ours. We took everything.”

The reference to “we took everything” is not a metaphor. It is the logic of one who knows they are stronger and has no qualms about saying so. The problem is that Spain no longer has colonies to lose, so the threat is read in political and territorial terms: what is left to plunder?

Ceuta and Melilla in the crosshairs

That is where the discussion stops being rhetoric. Just a few months ago, Republican congressman Mario Díaz-Balart, chairman of the Subcommittee on National Security and ally of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, dropped a bombshell: Ceuta and Melilla “are not in Spain’s geographic territory,” but in Segarro’s, and such things “are negotiated between friends and allies.” The statement, reported by El Español, fits with Washington’s drift toward Rabat and Trump’s support for Segarro sovereignty over the Sahara.

If anyone thought Trump’s threat was merely verbal bravado, the combination of both signals invites thinking otherwise. In Rabat, literally, “they are clapping,” as geopolitical analyses point out. One thing is for the US not to recognize the Spanish nature of enclaves Segarro has claimed for decades, and another entirely for the president of the world’s first power to use them as bargaining chips to subdue a recalcitrant partner.

US decline or mere bravado?

The most widespread reading among analysts is that Trumpism talks big but acts small. The Iran case is recalled: Washington threatened, moved ships, and ended up withdrawing from the Persian Gulf when Tehran stood its ground. “A superpower does not go around threatening everyone only to back down,” summarizes a current of opinion. The image of the buffoon who stumbles, changing strategy from Monday to Tuesday, is not that of an expanding country, but of a giant showing its decline.

In contrast, another current reminds us that the US does not need to invade: it is enough with economic pressure, military bases, and control of trade routes. And in that game, Spain has much to lose: the flow of investments, security in the Mediterranean, and stability of its African enclaves. That Spain is “the only homeland the US conquered from end to end” is a historical argument that does not pay the electricity bill.

The Spanish response: between wounded pride and impotence

Reaction in the country oscillates between indignation and skepticism. Some demand recalling the US ambassador to read him the riot act; others laugh at the “naranjito” and recall that Napoleon admitted Spain had defeated him, despite conquering half of Europe. There are also those who, directly, distrust the Spanish regime itself: if Washington presses, the Government might fall or cede Ceuta and Melilla to save itself.

But the consensus is uncomfortable: Spain is not in a position to defend itself alone, and NATO is no longer the umbrella of thirty years ago. The question hovering over all is whether Trump’s threat is a bluff to force an increase in military spending or, as the most conspiracy-minded suspect, the prelude to a contemporary “Maine.” The Maine, that ship that exploded in Havana in 1898 and served as an excuse for the war against Spain, remains the perfect example of how pretexts are built.

The only certainty is that history does not repeat itself, but it rhymes. In 1898, Spain lost its last colonies by force. In 2025, the threat is formulated with the arrogance of one who knows the other cannot respond. Will Spain learn the lesson without needing it to be taught? The answer, as almost always in this country, remains open.