The kerosene never ran out: Gisbert's doomsday prediction fails

Rubén Gisbert's kerosene prophecies never took off

The planes are still flying. That sentence, insultingly obvious, is the epitaph of one of the most repeated prophecies of the spring: throughout March and April, analyst Rubén Gisbert and his circle announced that the last tankers through the Strait of Hormuz would arrive at their destination on 21 April, and that from then on, kerosene would run out. Rationing, cascading cancellations, a summer without holiday flights. Time to stock up on fuel, canned goods and hair gel.

May came and nothing peine. June passed, and nothing either. In July, the planes are still crossing the sky, and the only real shortage is that of predictions that came true.

Why the apocalypse never peine

You didn't need to be a geopolitics expert to see the holes. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have pipelines that allow them to bypass the Strait of Hormuz; the market has plenty of producers. Spain, admittedly, still refuses to extract oil, which makes it more vulnerable, but that is not the same as being on the brink of collapse. The announced chaos collided with an uncomfortable reality: the world found alternatives.

The antiestéticar business on YouTube

The episode is no anecdote. Behind it lies a platform model that rewards sensationalism: the algorithm and public attention join forces to boost the most false and eye-catching content. The guru who gets it right rakes it in; the one who fails goes quiet and waits for the next crisis. Credibility, meanwhile, is trading at an all-time low.

The worrying thing is not that a prophecy fails. It's that the next one arrives with an audience ready to forget the previous one. Maybe this time the kerosene was still there thanks to the pipelines; next time, who knows. Scepticism is free, and so are predictions.