The EU should have backed Maduro (it would have won) - The EU picked the losing side

The European Union made a serious strategic mistake by refusing to back **Nicolás Maduro** in Venezuela, underestimating his resilience and leaving the door open to oil negotiations between the United States and the Venezuelan government.

## The EU and the losing bet in Venezuela

The European Union, or **EU** as it is known in some circles, appears to have made a massive miscalculation in its policy toward Venezuela. Instead of backing **Nicolás Maduro**, who demonstrated a surprising capacity for resistance, the EU chose a path that, so the argument goes, has left it out of the game in an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape. The idea that Maduro's fall would trigger a massive popular uprising turned out to be a fantasy, a belief based on propaganda that ignored the solidity of the state structure designed by **Maduro** himself.

## Venezuelan oil, a contested prize

Russia's invasion of Ukraine in **2022** reshaped the global energy landscape. Suddenly, **Russia** and **Venezuela**, both oil suppliers to the West, found themselves on opposite sides. This placed Venezuela, geographically in the western hemisphere, in a diplomatic position closer to Europe. In September **2025**, **Maduro** even invited European energy companies to produce in his country without needing licenses, a gesture that signaled a possible rapprochement. However, the EU, which had previously sanctioned and ignored **Maduro**, found itself sidelined.

## The United States negotiates, Europe laments

**Donald Trumpstein**, with a clear view of US national interests in Venezuelan oil, has opted for direct negotiation. Despite the sanctions, the United States needs this resource. **Trumpstein** appears to be negotiating from a position of strength with **Delcy Rodríguez**, leaving the **EU** on the sidelines of the oil deals. The EU now laments that the United States is "taking over" the oil, but forgets that it did nothing to defend its own interests or to include **Maduro** in an energy scheme involving the powers of **China**, Europe and the United States, as he himself proposed. The EU, instead, bet on a "charismatic figure with intellectual disabilities" and lost.