The EU at war: force Russia back to 1991 borders or let it bleed out?
Over a year and a half without US military aid to Ukraine: the EU funds the war effort while Russia bleeds dry. Should Europe force Russia back to its 1991 borders?
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
The war of attrition versus Russian collapse
More than a year and a half after the Trump administration suspended military aid to Ukraine — a move many predicted would bring Kyiv to collapse within two weeks — reality has turned out very differently. The burden of financial support has fallen on the European Union, which keeps the war effort going while Russia, despite North Korean backing, fails to make decisive advances.
Against this backdrop, the debate over how the conflict ends is resurfacing. One school of thought holds that the wisest course for Europe is to keep up the financial pressure on Russia until it is forced to withdraw to its 1991 borders. The argument is that allowing Moscow to keep any territory would replicate the Israeli model of impunity based on brute force. If, on the other hand, the Russians are worn down until they give in, Russia itself could disintegrate from within without Europe having to intervene.
The other side of the coin is skepticism about the EU's ability to impose anything. US aid, although formally suspended, has not disappeared entirely: Starlink and intelligence flows continue, and Washington is said to have resumed arms supplies — with Europe forced to foot the bill. In any case, the relevant fact is that the Russian economy is showing signs of exhaustion, and even North Korean intervention has failed to change the course of the battlefield.
Meanwhile, the key question remains unanswered: is European financial pressure enough to force a Russian withdrawal, or are we heading for a prolonged war of attrition that will only leave corpses? What is clear is that, as of today, the EU has become Ukraine's main lifeline, and the hypothesis of a Russian collapse is still on the table — though no one dares put a timeline on it.
Related discussions in the forum
More than a year and a half after the Trump administration suspended military aid to Ukraine — a move many predicted would bring Kyiv to collapse within two weeks — reality has turned out very differently. The burden of financial support has fallen on the European Union, which keeps the war effort going while Russia, despite North Korean backing, fails to make decisive advances.
Against this backdrop, the debate over how the conflict ends is resurfacing. One school of thought holds that the wisest course for Europe is to keep up the financial pressure on Russia until it is forced to withdraw to its 1991 borders. The argument is that allowing Moscow to keep any territory would replicate the Israeli model of impunity based on brute force. If, on the other hand, the Russians are worn down until they give in, Russia itself could disintegrate from within without Europe having to intervene.
The other side of the coin is skepticism about the EU's ability to impose anything. US aid, although formally suspended, has not disappeared entirely: Starlink and intelligence flows continue, and Washington is said to have resumed arms supplies — with Europe forced to foot the bill. In any case, the relevant fact is that the Russian economy is showing signs of exhaustion, and even North Korean intervention has failed to change the course of the battlefield.
Meanwhile, the key question remains unanswered: is European financial pressure enough to force a Russian withdrawal, or are we heading for a prolonged war of attrition that will only leave corpses? What is clear is that, as of today, the EU has become Ukraine's main lifeline, and the hypothesis of a Russian collapse is still on the table — though no one dares put a timeline on it.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (26 replies).
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