Syrian refugees in Germany are not going home

Syrians in Germany are not going back: the exception to the mass return

The Damascus regime fell on 8 December 2024 and the civil war came to an end. Since then, 1.6 million Syrians have returned to their homeland. But the Syrian refugee community in Germany is not moving. What explains this exception? Two readings, with different consequences, are circulating in the analysis.

Fake nationalities in the records?

The first has to do with identity. Recent reports suggest that a significant share of the "Syrians" registered in Germany were in fact of other nationalities: Maghrebis, Pakistanis or Afghans who rehearsed their story before the BAMF, Germany's federal migration office. Where are those who have no home in Syria supposed to return to? The answer, logically, is that they do not return.

An incentive too good to refuse?

The second explanation is economic. Between welfare benefits, paid housing and integration courses, the German system has created a level of dependency that even exceeds that of the Swedish welfare state. Faced with the prospect of returning to a city in ruins, the rational calculation is to stay. And there is an added political dimension: the opening of the borders was sold as humanitarian, but it also responded to demographic and labour needs. "Wir schaffen das" ended up being more than a slogan.

Germany thus remains the great exception to the Syrian return. The question of whether these are refugees or economic migrants remains unanswered. But the data suggest something uncomfortable: nobody flees a war to settle in the country with the best benefits and stay for life, unless what wins them over is the benefit itself. The irony is that the Syrian humanitarian drama served, in part, to rescue the German welfare state.