Sweden: 70% of non-European vote and 60% female support went to the left

The left sweeps in Sweden among migrants (70%) and women (60%)

It is decided by tenths, and the external vote, which is counted late, can upset the final distribution. On the table is a Valu exit poll: 70% of voters of non-European origin would have supported the left bloc. Nearly 60% of women, too. This is not a new picture: the Nordic countries register the biggest gender gap in voting in Europe.

A tie decided by 349 seats

The arithmetic doesn't add up. The non-left parties would sum up 200 of the 349 seats in the Swedish parliament, but the Centre (C) does not agree to pact with the Sweden Democrats (SD), so in practice, it reinforces the opposing bloc. With the margin decided by tenths, a veto is worth more than a government program. And the scrutiny decided by a handful of ballots makes every abstention a weapon.

The Nordic voting gender gap

There is a structural explanation repeated in Sweden, Denmark, and Norway: nearly half of working women are employed in the public sector. Right-wing parties appear masculinized; left-wing ones, feminized. The more anti-immigration or economically liberal a party is, the more male vote it attracts; the greener or more social democratic, the more female vote. The Christian Democrats and socio-liberals remain most balanced. The breakdown by sens and age, table by table, is what best portrays this symmetry.

And yet, the Swedish Social Democracy has accumulated 109 years as the most voted force in the country. No fracture has broken that inertia yet. This time, the scrutiny trinc the 50% mark.