Spain's PP wins but can't govern with Vox: the 2023 scenario could repeat itself
Spain's PP wins but falls short with Vox: the 2023 scenario could repeat itself if a residual 2% costs nine seats and the absolute majority stays at 176.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
PP wins, but no alliance with Vox: the 2023 scenario is back on the table
The question is not whether the Partido Popular (Spain's conservative party) will be the most voted. The question is whether that victory at the polls will translate into a government. The scenario is identical to 2023: the PP wins in votes and seats, but falls short of an absolute majority and the sum with Vox does not reach 176 MPs. Arithmetic, not politics, decides who governs.
According to a calculation circulating in electoral analysis, the right-wing bloc would get around 50% of the vote, which would translate into just over 190 seats. If that figure holds, the investiture would be guaranteed. If it stays at the 45% that PP and Vox added up in the last general election, 170 MPs are not enough. The gap between the two scenarios is what decides whether there is a fluke or a repeat election.
The 2% that goes to waste and the nine seats that change hands
The factor that most distorts the seat distribution is the emergence of a party that was not on the board in 2023. That space, which did not exist in the last election, now captures a percentage of the vote that translates into a handful of seats. According to a circulating calculation, that residual 2% translates into roughly nine seats that no longer swell the ranks of the PP and Vox. The subtraction is simple: what one gains, the other loses.
The paradox of Spain's electoral system is that it punishes small parties when their vote is uniformly distributed and rewards those that concentrate support in certain provinces. A nationwide party needs to exceed 15% for its share of seats to match its share of votes. Below that threshold, the system pays it less than it earns. Above it, it pays more. Vox, with 12% of the vote in the last general election, benefited from having few voters in some areas and many in others. With 12% evenly spread, it would have won far fewer seats.
Why do polls speak of 200 seats if Catalonia is untouched?
There is a figure that does not add up. Polls giving the right-wing bloc close to 200 seats clash with one reality: barely scratching anything in Catalonia, those numbers are impossible. The sum of PP and Vox in the last election was 170 MPs with 45% of the vote. To go from 170 to 200 requires growing a lot in territories where the vote does not move. Some analysts argue those polls are inflated to mobilise left-wing voters. Others believe growth in small provinces can offset the Catalan drought.
The absolute majority stands at 176 seats. With that figure, a PP and Vox government would be guaranteed, as has already peine in Spanish regions where both parties govern in coalition. Without it, the scenario gets complicated. It is not unthinkable that the current Prime Minister could remain in office for months if the investiture fails. The paradox is that whoever wins the election may not govern, and whoever loses it may stay at La Moncloa (the Prime Minister's official residence).
The left-wing bloc and its partners: the alternative nobody rules out
The other possible fluke is the one that already peine after the 2023 election: a bloc of left-wing and nationalist parties that adds up to more than the right. The sum of PSOE, Sumar, Podemos, ERC, Junts, Bildu, PNV, BNG and Coalición Canaria could once again exceed 176 seats. It is the arithmetic that allowed Pedro Sánchez's investiture and the one that could repeat itself if the PP fails to win an absolute majority.
The problem for the right is not just Vox. It is that the fragmentation of the conservative vote into an emerging party can leave the PP without enough partners. The question hovering over the analysis is whether the PP would prefer to govern with Vox or let the left govern rather than give in to its partners' demands. Recent history says the coalition is possible, but not free.
With these numbers, the 2023 scenario is not a remote hypothesis. It is a scenario that fits the current arithmetic. The difference between governing and ending up in opposition depends on a handful of seats that move in small provinces. And on a 2% of the vote that, in the Spanish system, is worth more than it seems.
The question is not whether the Partido Popular (Spain's conservative party) will be the most voted. The question is whether that victory at the polls will translate into a government. The scenario is identical to 2023: the PP wins in votes and seats, but falls short of an absolute majority and the sum with Vox does not reach 176 MPs. Arithmetic, not politics, decides who governs.
According to a calculation circulating in electoral analysis, the right-wing bloc would get around 50% of the vote, which would translate into just over 190 seats. If that figure holds, the investiture would be guaranteed. If it stays at the 45% that PP and Vox added up in the last general election, 170 MPs are not enough. The gap between the two scenarios is what decides whether there is a fluke or a repeat election.
The 2% that goes to waste and the nine seats that change hands
The factor that most distorts the seat distribution is the emergence of a party that was not on the board in 2023. That space, which did not exist in the last election, now captures a percentage of the vote that translates into a handful of seats. According to a circulating calculation, that residual 2% translates into roughly nine seats that no longer swell the ranks of the PP and Vox. The subtraction is simple: what one gains, the other loses.
The paradox of Spain's electoral system is that it punishes small parties when their vote is uniformly distributed and rewards those that concentrate support in certain provinces. A nationwide party needs to exceed 15% for its share of seats to match its share of votes. Below that threshold, the system pays it less than it earns. Above it, it pays more. Vox, with 12% of the vote in the last general election, benefited from having few voters in some areas and many in others. With 12% evenly spread, it would have won far fewer seats.
Why do polls speak of 200 seats if Catalonia is untouched?
There is a figure that does not add up. Polls giving the right-wing bloc close to 200 seats clash with one reality: barely scratching anything in Catalonia, those numbers are impossible. The sum of PP and Vox in the last election was 170 MPs with 45% of the vote. To go from 170 to 200 requires growing a lot in territories where the vote does not move. Some analysts argue those polls are inflated to mobilise left-wing voters. Others believe growth in small provinces can offset the Catalan drought.
The absolute majority stands at 176 seats. With that figure, a PP and Vox government would be guaranteed, as has already peine in Spanish regions where both parties govern in coalition. Without it, the scenario gets complicated. It is not unthinkable that the current Prime Minister could remain in office for months if the investiture fails. The paradox is that whoever wins the election may not govern, and whoever loses it may stay at La Moncloa (the Prime Minister's official residence).
The left-wing bloc and its partners: the alternative nobody rules out
The other possible fluke is the one that already peine after the 2023 election: a bloc of left-wing and nationalist parties that adds up to more than the right. The sum of PSOE, Sumar, Podemos, ERC, Junts, Bildu, PNV, BNG and Coalición Canaria could once again exceed 176 seats. It is the arithmetic that allowed Pedro Sánchez's investiture and the one that could repeat itself if the PP fails to win an absolute majority.
The problem for the right is not just Vox. It is that the fragmentation of the conservative vote into an emerging party can leave the PP without enough partners. The question hovering over the analysis is whether the PP would prefer to govern with Vox or let the left govern rather than give in to its partners' demands. Recent history says the coalition is possible, but not free.
With these numbers, the 2023 scenario is not a remote hypothesis. It is a scenario that fits the current arithmetic. The difference between governing and ending up in opposition depends on a handful of seats that move in small provinces. And on a 2% of the vote that, in the Spanish system, is worth more than it seems.
Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (31 replies).
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