Spain's PP loses majority but outpaces PSOE
PP loses absolute majority in Andalusia yet doubles PSOE votes. Analysis of the debate on which party is more weakened.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Andalusia 2026: PP loses majority, PSOE collapses, who is the corpse?
42% of the vote and a 20-point lead over the second place were not enough for Juanma Moreno's PP to retain its absolute majority in Andalusia. It lost five seats, although it gained votes compared to the general elections. The PSOE, meanwhile, plummeted, losing more than half a million votes compared to 2023. This paradox fuels the debate: is the PP more dead, or is it the PSOE?
The numbers from the Andalusian election
Turnout reached nearly 64.8%, very similar to the 66.6% in the 2023 general elections. The PP obtained 1,735,819 votes, surpassing the 1,596,044 from three years ago. In contrast, the PSOE sank to 947,713 ballots, down from the previous 1,467,501. Vox achieved 576,635 votes and Sumar 665,347 (including the left of the PSOE). The combined PP+Vox share reaches 55% of the seats, ensuring governability.
The striking data point is that the PP, despite losing its absolute majority, widened its lead over the PSOE to 19 percentage points. Those defending the PP's strength note it remains the only traditional center-right party in Europe leading in voting intention. Critics counter that losing five seats with such tailwinds signals weakness, and that Moreno Bonilla's campaign was a disaster, filled with failed shows and empty speeches.
Who really won?
Two interpretations clash. First: the PP clearly won, doubling the PSOE in votes and seats, with the loss of absolute majority attributed to the natural wear of governing. Additionally, turnout rose seven points since 2022, expanding the voter base, yet the PP still gained votes. Second interpretation: the PP failed, as it started with an absolute majority aiming to reaffirm it but lost it; furthermore, its national candidate (Feijóo) cannot translate Andalusian momentum to the state level, and the result may open the door to a pact with Vox that further erodes the party.
A third, minority but noisy current argues that both PP and PSOE are the same mess: both support mass immigration, abortion, and feminism, and accumulate 99% of corruption scandals. For them, the corpse is not a party but the two-party system, though data shows they still concentrate two-thirds of the vote.
Implications for national politics
The Andalusian result projects onto the 2027 general elections. PP optimists believe the 20-point advantage will hold and Feijóo can govern with Vox. Pessimists see the PP stagnating and Sánchez, with his independentist allies, able to resist. The paradox: Moreno Bonilla won in almost all provinces, but his party lost the absolute majority. And Feijóo, far from Moreno's charisma, will have to overcome a negative effect from his visit to the Andalusian campaign.
The question no one has answered is whether the PP is truly dead or if it managed to revive timely. Time will tell if the drop in seats was an accident or a trend. What is clear is that the PSOE, with 22% of the vote, needs deep restructuring. But as long as both continue to sum two-thirds of the electorate, the corpse will always be that of the alternative.
Related forum debates
42% of the vote and a 20-point lead over the second place were not enough for Juanma Moreno's PP to retain its absolute majority in Andalusia. It lost five seats, although it gained votes compared to the general elections. The PSOE, meanwhile, plummeted, losing more than half a million votes compared to 2023. This paradox fuels the debate: is the PP more dead, or is it the PSOE?
The numbers from the Andalusian election
Turnout reached nearly 64.8%, very similar to the 66.6% in the 2023 general elections. The PP obtained 1,735,819 votes, surpassing the 1,596,044 from three years ago. In contrast, the PSOE sank to 947,713 ballots, down from the previous 1,467,501. Vox achieved 576,635 votes and Sumar 665,347 (including the left of the PSOE). The combined PP+Vox share reaches 55% of the seats, ensuring governability.
The striking data point is that the PP, despite losing its absolute majority, widened its lead over the PSOE to 19 percentage points. Those defending the PP's strength note it remains the only traditional center-right party in Europe leading in voting intention. Critics counter that losing five seats with such tailwinds signals weakness, and that Moreno Bonilla's campaign was a disaster, filled with failed shows and empty speeches.
Who really won?
Two interpretations clash. First: the PP clearly won, doubling the PSOE in votes and seats, with the loss of absolute majority attributed to the natural wear of governing. Additionally, turnout rose seven points since 2022, expanding the voter base, yet the PP still gained votes. Second interpretation: the PP failed, as it started with an absolute majority aiming to reaffirm it but lost it; furthermore, its national candidate (Feijóo) cannot translate Andalusian momentum to the state level, and the result may open the door to a pact with Vox that further erodes the party.
A third, minority but noisy current argues that both PP and PSOE are the same mess: both support mass immigration, abortion, and feminism, and accumulate 99% of corruption scandals. For them, the corpse is not a party but the two-party system, though data shows they still concentrate two-thirds of the vote.
Implications for national politics
The Andalusian result projects onto the 2027 general elections. PP optimists believe the 20-point advantage will hold and Feijóo can govern with Vox. Pessimists see the PP stagnating and Sánchez, with his independentist allies, able to resist. The paradox: Moreno Bonilla won in almost all provinces, but his party lost the absolute majority. And Feijóo, far from Moreno's charisma, will have to overcome a negative effect from his visit to the Andalusian campaign.
The question no one has answered is whether the PP is truly dead or if it managed to revive timely. Time will tell if the drop in seats was an accident or a trend. What is clear is that the PSOE, with 22% of the vote, needs deep restructuring. But as long as both continue to sum two-thirds of the electorate, the corpse will always be that of the alternative.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (144 replies).
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