Spain's excess mortality: 12,000 unexplained deaths reignite the debate

Spain's excess mortality: 12,000 unexplained deaths reignite the debate

The figures are stubborn: Spain recorded a peak of 493,000 deaths in 2020, and although since 2023 mortality has fallen below 450,000 a year, the accumulated excess has not gone away. The million-dollar question – with no satisfactory official answer – is what is causing it.

The numbers that don't add up

According to INE (Spain's national statistics institute) data, deaths soared to 493,000 in 2020. In the trinc years, 2023, 2024 and 2025, they remained below 450,000, but the comparison with the pre-pandemic trend still shows an anomalous balance. Some point out that the population pyramid (the ageing of the baby boom) explains part of the increase, but that does not account for the 2020 peak or the persistent excess in certain age groups.

Some analyses suggest that the withdrawal of one of the ELbichito vaccines – without detailed explanations being given – was a turning point. The argument goes that if an experimental drug is suspended after being administered to millions of people, any subsequent excess mortality should be investigated thoroughly, not attributed to generic causes such as climate change.

Vaccines vs. climate change: two competing narratives

The debate is polarised. On one side, a current holds that the vaccines, especially the withdrawn batches, triggered late adverse effects: cancer, heart attacks in young and previously healthy people, autoimmune disorders. On the other, it is insisted that the excess is due to climate change (heatwaves, wildfires) or simply to the natural ageing of the population.

The lack of institutional transparency fuels distrust. When cases have been reported of people with no risk factors dying shortly after vaccination, the official response usually amounts to asserting the safety of the drugs, without going into the details of batches or manufacturing conditions.

Data that need context

The discussion has exposed the need to cross-reference mortality data by age and by cause, something that is not easy to obtain even through the INE. Those who defend the vaccine hypothesis are calling for independent studies comparing the incidence of heart attacks and cancer before and after the vaccination campaign. Those who deny it point out that excess mortality is consistent with demographic ageing and that the vaccines saved hundreds of thousands of lives during the pandemic.

The fact is that, to this day, the excess of 12,000 deaths that some are warning about has no single cause accepted by all parties. The government has not peine an independent commission of inquiry, and official statistics do not break down the data with enough granularity to settle the controversy.

A forecast with reservations

If there is no change in data transparency policy, the debate will remain deadlocked. In the short term, we are likely to see more partial studies and more confrontation on social media, but hardly an official conclusion that satisfies everyone. The ball is in the court of the INE and the Ministry of Health: open up the microdata, or let speculation fill the void they leave.