Spain's EV sales surge lacks data confirmation

Electric car dealerships: Demand that no one confirms

Amid rising fuel prices, the idea that electric vehicle dealerships are overwhelmed by a flood of orders has taken hold in public discourse. However, the available data does not support this scenario: in Spain, according to industry figures circulating, nearly 100,000 cars were registered in February, of which approximately 10% were electric. And that was with subsidies. The comparison with Portugal, where more than 20% of registrations are pure electric vehicles, serves as an uncomfortable mirror: it is not that Portuguese citizens are wealthier, but that their tax system treats electric vehicles differently.

The thesis of overwhelming demand clashes with an administrative detail. The personal income tax deduction for purchasing electric vehicles remains stalled in Congress, and the Auto+ Plan is awaiting approval. With this landscape, claiming that people are fighting to buy an electric vehicle sounds, at best, optimistic. The official narrative on electric vehicles has its promoters, while the market keeps its own accounts.

Why compare Spain and Portugal on electric vehicle sales?

The argument regarding Portugal relies on concrete figures. More than 20% of cars registered in Portugal are pure electric vehicles, a percentage that comfortably doubles the Spanish figure. The explanation is not purchasing power: it is taxation. According to available data, 100% electric vehicles are exempt from the Vehicle Registration Tax (ISV) and the Single Circulation Tax (IUC), and companies enjoy VAT deductions and exemptions from Corporate Income Tax (IRC).

Here lies the key that many analyses omit: a significant portion of these purchases are corporate. Urban delivery vehicles, corporate fleets, carsharing services. Private individuals buying an electric vehicle for personal use remain a minority, and they do so with public aid. When you dig into the data, the picture changes: it is not a consumer revolution, but corporate tax optimization.

The real cost of switching cars due to fuel prices

The rise in gasoline and diesel prices is the emotional trigger. Many people make a simple calculation: if filling the tank costs more each time, an electric vehicle pays off. The problem is that this calculation ignores depreciation. An electric car costs between 30,000 and 40,000 euros, and fuel savings do not offset the initial outlay unless you drive many kilometers per year and have a home charging point.

Some argue that the optimal purchase time is when your current combustion engine car gives up, not before. Even if fuel costs double, the margin for not switching is huge. The scenario that justifies the leap is specific: 50,000 kilometers annually and the possibility of charging in your own garage. For everyone else, an electric vehicle is a second car or an expensive whim.

Depreciation works against you. If a combustion engine car loses value as soon as it leaves the dealership, an electric one loses it faster. Moreover, the public charging network remains a bottleneck: those without a garage have nowhere to plug in.

Electric grid infrastructure and upcoming taxes

The argument about the electrical grid appears repeatedly. According to some analyses, REE (Red Eléctrica de España) is on the verge of collapse, and new neighborhoods in Madrid already face difficulties connecting to the power grid. Plugging millions of cars simultaneously, given this base, is an act of faith. Slow nighttime charging (2-5 kW) is the only sensible option for the average user; high-power chargers are for fleets and long trips.

Then there is the tax issue. In some countries, electric vehicles are already being taxed because revenue from combustion engines is declining. The hydrocarbon tax is a fixed amount per liter: 0.472 euros per liter of unleaded 95 gasoline and 0.379 euros per liter of diesel A. If fuel demand falls, that revenue falls. The State will look for money wherever it is. Electric vehicles will not be spared.

Quality of cheap electric vehicles and the taxi driver case

The entry of Chinese brands has brought affordable electric vehicles. The problem is what lies beneath the surface. A BYD may look brand new from afar, but opening the doors reveals poor plastic, deficient finishes, and a ridiculous trunk. The feeling that the car will fall apart upon touching it is hard to avoid. Additionally, the seats are very soft and strain the back during long trips.

The case of taxi drivers who bet on Tesla is illustrative. Many thought electric vehicles would save them, but now they are their worst nightmare: range problems, extremely expensive maintenance, and disputes with the FreeNow app. Early adopters pay for novelty with money and lost time.

Conclusion: The numbers that don't add up

With these figures, the scene of dealerships overwhelmed by demand does not fit. The Spanish electric vehicle market is advancing, yes, but at a pace that does not justify the panic-buying narrative. The unanswered question is how much of that growth is actual private consumer purchases versus corporate tax engineering. No one provides the broken-down figures. Without that data, everything else is just conversation.