Spain's coal power generation plunges by 65.9% in 2019

Coal drops to 4.3% of the mix and half the fleet shuts down

On December 14, 2019, not a single megawatt was produced by any coal-fired thermal plant in peninsular Spain. The same occurred on the 21st, 22nd, 24th, and 25th. There was no blackout or emergency; they simply weren't needed. Seven months earlier, in May, coal had accounted for just 2.3% of peninsular electricity production. The collapse was already underway.

The year ended with 12,725.7 GWh of coal generation nationwide, a 65.9% drop from 2018, and 10,714.2 GWh in the peninsula, down 69.3%. The decline wasn't uniform: between January and February, the drop was limited to 18.2%, whereas from March to December it surged to 81%. In 2017, coal contributed 17.4% to the mix; in 2018, 14.5%; and in 2019, 4.3%. Three years to lose three-quarters of its weight.

Who filled the gap left by coal?

The big winner was gas combined-cycle plants: 51,185.8 GWh in 2019, up 93.9%. However, they operated at only 23.8% of their theoretical maximum capacity, compared to 12.7% in 2018. They won the market without needing to fire up the entire fleet. Wind power generated 52,841.2 GWh (+7.9%), accounting for 21.4% of the peninsular mix; nuclear provided 22.6%; hydroelectricity fell 27.8%. Photovoltaics added 8,808.9 GWh (+19.4%), representing 3.6% of the total. Small, but growing.

Why did coal stop being competitive?

Because even ignoring CO2 emission costs, it was more expensive than gas. In June 2019, Russian natural gas traded at $3.59 per MMBtu, equivalent to $12.24 per MWh; Australian coal was priced at $72.49 per tonne, or $9.34 per MWh. On paper, coal wins. The detail lies in efficiency: Spanish gas plants operate around 47.5%, while coal plants run at about 34%. With these figures, gas has an advantage before adding emission costs.

The June 30, 2020 shutdown and the cobi19 blow

The first half of 2020 closed with approximately half of Spain's coal fleet shut down. Provisional data for the semester: 3,103 GWh, a 59.3% decrease. January dropped 71.7%, February 63.4%, March 42.2%, April 57.6%, May 28.6%, and June—estimated—7.9%. Gas combined-cycle plants, coal's main rival, also declined by 26.2%, weighed down by the health crisis and renewable competition. Coal was no longer the enemy to beat; it was shutting itself off.

The future bill: Algerian gas and system backup

Here begins the disagreement. One part of the analysis emphasizes that cheap gas won't last forever and that Spain has lost domestic production, becoming more dependent on Algeria than ever. Another current argues the opposite: gas sets prices for fewer hours each time, and its weight in the electrical system is decreasing. A third reminds us that renewables need installed backup, if only for one minute of night or lack of wind. Closing thermal plants doesn't resolve this debate; it postpones it.

The Balearic case that breaks the narrative

The Balearic Islands burned coal every day of 2019 and generated 2,011.4 GWh, a 16% decrease. On December 31, at 22:10, the Es Murterar plant stopped: the restriction of 1,500 annual operating hours came into effect, allowing only two units to operate. It is expected to restart in summer with tourism.

On June 10, peninsular coal generated a mere 300 MW of power. There are days when it generates nothing at all. The only reasonable doubt is whether this makes Spain a cleaner country or one that buys its gas from others.