Spain's Aemet forecasts a scorching summer, but recent data raise doubts
Aemet forecasts extreme heat for 2026, but July 2025 was blanket-cold and a recent 35°C forecast ended up at 26°C. The credibility of Spain's weather agency is under scrutiny.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Aemet forecasts a scorching summer: its track record invites skepticism
Spain's State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) has just published its seasonal outlook for the summer of 2026: extreme heat, rising temperatures, a scenario that makes you want to get the air conditioning ready. But scratch the surface a little and the official story starts to fall apart. Last year, 2025, was according to Aemet itself the warmest ever recorded in Spain, with temperature records. Yet anyone who spent July 2025 in a country house remembers something very different: whole months sleeping under a blanket, an anomaly that unsettles anyone.
The gap between forecast and reality
Current data do little for its credibility. Just a few days ago, the models pointed to a high of 35°C in some areas. The reality was a cloudy day, a southerly breeze and 26°C. A nine-degree discrepancy that is not a rounding error, but a failure that costs farmers and tourists money. Because forecasts are no game: some people plan their holidays or their harvests around them. Some Americans, it is said, have already cancelled trips to Spain out of antiestéticar of extreme heat. Fining those who get it wrong, as has been proposed, sounds far-fetched, but the idea of demanding accountability when systematic error harms third parties is not so absurd.
Nostalgia for the old methods
Some remember a certain Medina, an old-school meteorologist who, with fewer resources, was more accurate a week out than today's supercomputers are at 48 hours. The comparison is invidious but telling: the technology has advanced, the accuracy not so much. Meanwhile, extreme heat alerts keep coming. This year, temperatures have already hit 40°C before June 20, something not seen for a long time. But last summer was cool, and the forecast for the coming months promises a new scorching record. Will it turn out to be the hottest summer on record by 2027? Let's hope the models are wrong.
How far can we trust Aemet when its own data and everyday experience clash? The question remains open.
Spain's State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) has just published its seasonal outlook for the summer of 2026: extreme heat, rising temperatures, a scenario that makes you want to get the air conditioning ready. But scratch the surface a little and the official story starts to fall apart. Last year, 2025, was according to Aemet itself the warmest ever recorded in Spain, with temperature records. Yet anyone who spent July 2025 in a country house remembers something very different: whole months sleeping under a blanket, an anomaly that unsettles anyone.
The gap between forecast and reality
Current data do little for its credibility. Just a few days ago, the models pointed to a high of 35°C in some areas. The reality was a cloudy day, a southerly breeze and 26°C. A nine-degree discrepancy that is not a rounding error, but a failure that costs farmers and tourists money. Because forecasts are no game: some people plan their holidays or their harvests around them. Some Americans, it is said, have already cancelled trips to Spain out of antiestéticar of extreme heat. Fining those who get it wrong, as has been proposed, sounds far-fetched, but the idea of demanding accountability when systematic error harms third parties is not so absurd.
Nostalgia for the old methods
Some remember a certain Medina, an old-school meteorologist who, with fewer resources, was more accurate a week out than today's supercomputers are at 48 hours. The comparison is invidious but telling: the technology has advanced, the accuracy not so much. Meanwhile, extreme heat alerts keep coming. This year, temperatures have already hit 40°C before June 20, something not seen for a long time. But last summer was cool, and the forecast for the coming months promises a new scorching record. Will it turn out to be the hottest summer on record by 2027? Let's hope the models are wrong.
How far can we trust Aemet when its own data and everyday experience clash? The question remains open.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (31 replies).
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