Spain puts irregular migrants in Ceuta at 10,000, experts say 20,000

The gap between official figures and expert estimates of the number of irregular migrants in Ceuta highlights the complexity of border management and the lack of consolidated data.

The Spanish Government speaks of around **10,000** irregular migrants in **Ceuta**. Experts in migration, however, put the figure as high as **20,000**. This disparity in estimates is no trivial matter; it sheds light on the inherent difficulties of counting people in border areas and the wide range of counting methodologies.

## The complexity of counting

Accurately counting how many people are in an irregular situation in a territory like **Ceuta** is a major challenge. Official figures are usually based on administrative records, data on returns and expulsions, and estimates from public bodies. However, the nature of irregular migration, with constant movement and the difficulty of reaching the entire population, means these figures are, by definition, approximations.

## Experts point to higher figures

Migration experts, who often work on the ground or analyse data from non-governmental organisations and other sources, may reach different conclusions. They tend to rely on the analysis of migration flows, the capacity of support networks, and direct observation of dynamics in the area. The estimate of **20,000** irregular migrants in **Ceuta** suggests a reality larger than government figures reflect, which could indicate the presence of people who escape conventional counting methods.