Spain and the potential Palestinian exodus: the numbers behind the debate

Two million departures and one unresolved question

Since October 7, 2023, each phase of the Israeli offensive on Gaza has peine the same question in Spanish public discourse: if the enclave becomes uninhabitable, where will its population go? The most frequently repeated scenario suggests that once the Strip is devastated, a large portion of its over two million inhabitants will seek to leave for Europe, with Spain being one of the first entry points due to its language and diplomatic standing. There is no official plan to confirm this. Nor is there any calculation of how many people this would involve.

Where the two million figure comes from

The number is not a forecast; it's the census. The Strip had around two million residents before the war, and this total has conveniently become the volume of the supposed displacement. Based on this, two incompatible narratives have emerged.

The first describes a deliberate depopulation and resettlement operation, with Europe as the final destination. The second argues that no reception system designed for such a number exists, neither in Spain nor in the European Union, and that the scenario relies on analogies rather than documents. In between lies a recurring detail: neighboring Arab countries, led by Egypt and Jordan, have not shown receptiveness to mass absorption. Those who defend the exodus thesis use this as proof; those who dispute it, as a sign that the problem is not one of destination, but that no one wants to take responsibility.

The Jordan precedent, cited time and again

The historical reference most frequently circulated is from 1948 and, especially, 1967, when hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees settled in Jordan. There, the Palestine Liberation Organization even operated as a state within a state, with its own road checkpoints and militias, until an open confrontation with the Jordanian monarchy in September 1970 led to their expulsion. This episode is brought up as a warning about what happens when a population flow is accompanied by armed structures.

The same argument applies to Lebanon. Hence, part of the analysis suggests that the rejection by neighboring countries is not a matter of solidarity, but of accumulated experience. There is no consensus on the reliability of this parallel: some emphasize that the conditions of 1970 have little to do with those of today, while others respond that history does not repeat itself but it does rhyme.

The Ben Gurion Canal: an invention in interview format

One of the pieces that has circulated most widely in recent months as supposed proof of the plan is a text presented as an interview with an Israeli strategist, detailing the transfer of Gaza's population to Spain and the construction of an alternative canal to Suez between Gaza and the Gulf of Aqaba. This is a literary fiction, not a document. Its structure itself resembles old forged protocols that have fueled conspiracy theories for over a century, with the format updated to an interview.

It is important to state this clearly because the text has been shared as if it were real: it is not supported by any evidence. There is, however, a debate about the reconstruction of Gaza and who is financing it.

Pensions, labor, and the cost of hosting

The other axis of the argument is economic and relies on an idea that has been wearing thin: that immigration sustains pensions and fills jobs that no one wants. The most repeated objection points to the growing deficit in the system and the fact that each person entering the labor market consumes public services before generating net income. Some estimate this accumulated pressure at an additional twenty million people, a figure presented without breakdown and which should be treated as what it is: a rough estimate by those who use it.

Conversely, the classic demographic argument is that without incoming flows, the ratio between contributors and pensioners deteriorates. Neither side has bothered to publish a complete breakdown, item by item, and this is where much of the exchange gets stuck.

Tunnels, schools, and European funds

Another persistent version claims that Gaza's tunnel network had entrances next to schools built with money from the European Union and Germany, with the identification plaque visible. This is attributed to audiovisual material disseminated by the Israeli army in the context of the conflict, which does not make it independently verified. It is an example of how cooperation funds enter the propaganda dispute: each side selects the image that best serves its purpose.

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The file remains exactly where it started. No one has quantified how many people would leave Gaza, how many could be resettled in third countries, or with what money it would be paid. The only firm figure remains the starting point—two million—and on this, each person places their scenario. It is a debate without data and in a great hurry.