Spain: a third over 65 and 40% foreign-born in 50 years

The 2074 census: a third over 65 and four in ten born abroad

The demographic projections handled by the National Statistics Institute — or at least those circulating in public debate — paint a scenario that invites reflection rather than doom-mongering. In fifty years, one in three Spaniards will be over 65 and four in ten residents will have been born abroad. The combination of ageing and a changing population composition poses major economic and social challenges.

An inevitable horizon?

The data is not new: it has been on the table for years. The low birth rate and rising life expectancy are causing the population pyramid to invert. Immigration, for its part, is emerging as the only factor that can offset the loss of numbers, even as it changes the country's profile. Some analyses suggest that the impact on the pension system and the labour market will be severe if structural measures are not taken.

Street perception vs. the figures

Those defending a more pessimistic view point out that even today the presence of foreign population is well above 40% in certain areas, and that cultural and economic integration is not advancing at the same pace as demography. At the other extreme, some play down the projections, arguing that half a century ahead any forecast is conjecture, and that factors such as automation or changes in migration policies could rewrite the future.

The debate is open, but the numbers, at least on paper, are stubborn. Spain is heading towards a demographic structure unprecedented in its history, and we are only beginning to glimpse the consequences.