Silver and Gold Plunge Hit in March, Not August

The warning to sell silver and gold predicted the crash, not the date

The warning was clear: sell silver and gold before the end of August, as a major crash was imminent. The crash arrived, but it came in March, striking when no one was watching. Afterward, the metal did the opposite of the script: it rebounded, hit highs, and made staying out a bad move. This reopens a six-year debate between those seeing a bubble and those believing it has just begun.

What the silver and gold sell warning said

The argument was simple and aggressive: metal prices were unsustainable, buyers were wrong, and the system would not allow anyone to get rich. The recommendation was to liquidate everything, wait for the correction, and re-enter lower. The goal was not to make a fortune, but to make «a few fishing trips».

The counterargument was that buying metal is not a short-term speculation strategy. The analogy used was swimming in a pool of gold: you accumulate wealth, not short-term trades. Selling to rebuy requires getting it right twice, which almost no one does. Corrections do not warn: they arrive when the entire market needs liquidity and drags even safe havens down.

From $26.48 per ounce to $55 targets

After the March crash, silver entered an escalation trinc almost candle by candle. A weekly close expected at $26.48 fell 20 cents short: the week’s high was $26.28. From there, targets were set—$27.50 first, then $30, and for those looking further, $55 before year-end—with the warning that the figure only held if the market cooperated.

On the other side, skeptics noted that in the previous crisis, the metal did not reach $40: it moved between $12 and $16 for years without breaking anything. The $100 a ounce predictions remained just predictions.

The supply argument: 560,000 tons of silver

The bullish thesis was not based solely on price. It cited depleting reserves: about 560,000 tons of silver remain to be mined, and at current extraction rates, they will run out in 20 years. Adding that the metal is consumed in electronics, solar panels, and hospital equipment, the structural demand argument gains weight with each passing year.

The doubt always lies in the timeline. A metal that runs out in two decades can drop 30% in two weeks, and the investor holding the thesis may run out of liquidity before seeing returns.

Why selling 18-karat gold pays 25% less than spot price

Here theory clashes with reality. 18-karat jewelry gold contains 75% pure metal. Dealers do not pay the international spot price for fine gold, but that 75% minus their margin for melting and testing. One specific case: someone liquidated inherited chains and jewelry and received about 25% less than spot, even after consulting several operators and choosing the best bidder.

Buying or selling through platforms operating at spot price avoids this loss. The difference between the metal’s value and the money received is, in jewelry, the most expensive and least visible toll.

The second wave thesis: halted mines and parabolic silver

One repeated argument was about lockdowns. If a second wave of closures was declared, extraction mines would have to stop while demand remained. Less supply and same demand: a «stronger and parabolic rise». According to this reading, it was time to rebuy for those who had stayed out.

Against this scenario played the precedent of the first crash: in a liquidity shock, the metal also plunges, because everyone sells what they can to cover other positions. Safe havens stop behaving as safe havens just when they are needed most.

Uganda and rhodium: the data that disrupts

In the final stage, two points appeared that no model had included. Uganda abolished the gold export tax after finding its largest mine in history, a direct blow to the scarcity argument. And rhodium, the metal few trinc, rose $1,500 per ounce in a single session. Markets, in short.

An uncomfortable fact remains. The one who warned of the crash got the hit but missed the date. The one who said the metal would keep rising got the rebound but has not seen €100 an ounce in years. Both sides remain, with the same figures in hand. How many times must you look at the same chart to know if this is a safe haven or a trap?