Sánchez's successor won't fix Spain's economy, forum analysis says
Spain's economic woes persist regardless of leadership change: Feijóo likely applies same policies with less skill and margin.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Sánchez's successor won't fix Spain's economy
The debate isn't whether Sánchez should leave. It's whether his exit changes anything. The thesis running through the discussion is that the most likely successor, Feijóo, will apply the same economic policies under a different wrapper: more clumsiness, less margin, and the same submission to Brussels. The German example is used as a mirror: voters ousted Scholz's socialist government, yet the center-right maintained course, hardened repression, and didn't curb immigration. The shared diagnosis is that the problem isn't the tenant, but the building.
What peine in Germany and why it serves as a warning
The German case works as a natural experiment. It is argued that voters punished Scholz's socialist government to install the "German PP," resulting in continuity: more immigration, more economic destruction, and levels of repression that, according to this reading, reach highs. The conclusion drawn is that the center-right manages the same program with a different face.
Some argue Spain will repeat the script. Sánchez's successor proposed fining those who refused Elbichito vaccination €60,000, a measure stopped only by the judiciary. This precedent is used to dismantle the moderate label. The lingering question is whether someone who attempted that can present themselves as a guarantor of freedoms.
Criticism extends to Brussels. The same candidate voted to renew Von der Leyen, promoter of DSA laws, Chatcontrol, and the digital euro, and for policies that, according to this current, destroy European agricultural and livestock sectors. The argument is that the PP-PSOE axis shares a continental project.
The undisputed calculation: the treasury empties anyway
The economic core of the debate is more prosaic. It is held that no party will touch immigration, housing, productive fabric, or deficit while there is money in the treasury. The reason is electoral: real policy would miccionan going against the income of millions of pensioners and part of the population paid by the state. Circulating calculations speak of up to 15 million affected voters.
The conclusion is uncomfortable: there would be no fraud, just majority. Society, it is argued, wants this system because part of it lives off it. Money comes out of the productive economy and adjustment will come when there is no margin left. Then, and only then, measures will arrive.
Fiscal data points in the same direction. Non-repayable grants by ministries show figures cited as examples of waste: Foreign Affairs, 177 grants and €1,092 million; Inclusion and Social Security, 76 grants and €1,334 million; Youth and Childhood, 7 grants and €144 million. The complete breakdown leaves a surprising image.
The scenario drawn after the succession
The dominant prediction is that a PP-Vox government won't improve anything and will probably worsen street conditions. Strikes, sabotage, and violence are expected, with a key difference: the media left would stop defending the government and use all its energy to amplify every error. Today's complicit acquiescence would disappear.
Some go further, arguing the successor is "dumber than Rajoy" and a danger, to the point of preferring Sánchez stays. Others believe brutal repression would spur population reaction. A third current warns the new government would inherit economic and employment data as unreliable as Greece's before the bailout.
The only real consensus is that discontent won't leave with Sánchez. It will stay, with another tenant in La Moncloa and the same structure intact.
In the end, the disorienting data isn't political. It's arithmetic: while the treasury holds, no one touches anything. And the treasury, according to the numbers handled, has an expiration date.
The debate isn't whether Sánchez should leave. It's whether his exit changes anything. The thesis running through the discussion is that the most likely successor, Feijóo, will apply the same economic policies under a different wrapper: more clumsiness, less margin, and the same submission to Brussels. The German example is used as a mirror: voters ousted Scholz's socialist government, yet the center-right maintained course, hardened repression, and didn't curb immigration. The shared diagnosis is that the problem isn't the tenant, but the building.
What peine in Germany and why it serves as a warning
The German case works as a natural experiment. It is argued that voters punished Scholz's socialist government to install the "German PP," resulting in continuity: more immigration, more economic destruction, and levels of repression that, according to this reading, reach highs. The conclusion drawn is that the center-right manages the same program with a different face.
Some argue Spain will repeat the script. Sánchez's successor proposed fining those who refused Elbichito vaccination €60,000, a measure stopped only by the judiciary. This precedent is used to dismantle the moderate label. The lingering question is whether someone who attempted that can present themselves as a guarantor of freedoms.
Criticism extends to Brussels. The same candidate voted to renew Von der Leyen, promoter of DSA laws, Chatcontrol, and the digital euro, and for policies that, according to this current, destroy European agricultural and livestock sectors. The argument is that the PP-PSOE axis shares a continental project.
The undisputed calculation: the treasury empties anyway
The economic core of the debate is more prosaic. It is held that no party will touch immigration, housing, productive fabric, or deficit while there is money in the treasury. The reason is electoral: real policy would miccionan going against the income of millions of pensioners and part of the population paid by the state. Circulating calculations speak of up to 15 million affected voters.
The conclusion is uncomfortable: there would be no fraud, just majority. Society, it is argued, wants this system because part of it lives off it. Money comes out of the productive economy and adjustment will come when there is no margin left. Then, and only then, measures will arrive.
Fiscal data points in the same direction. Non-repayable grants by ministries show figures cited as examples of waste: Foreign Affairs, 177 grants and €1,092 million; Inclusion and Social Security, 76 grants and €1,334 million; Youth and Childhood, 7 grants and €144 million. The complete breakdown leaves a surprising image.
The scenario drawn after the succession
The dominant prediction is that a PP-Vox government won't improve anything and will probably worsen street conditions. Strikes, sabotage, and violence are expected, with a key difference: the media left would stop defending the government and use all its energy to amplify every error. Today's complicit acquiescence would disappear.
Some go further, arguing the successor is "dumber than Rajoy" and a danger, to the point of preferring Sánchez stays. Others believe brutal repression would spur population reaction. A third current warns the new government would inherit economic and employment data as unreliable as Greece's before the bailout.
The only real consensus is that discontent won't leave with Sánchez. It will stay, with another tenant in La Moncloa and the same structure intact.
In the end, the disorienting data isn't political. It's arithmetic: while the treasury holds, no one touches anything. And the treasury, according to the numbers handled, has an expiration date.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (118 replies).
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