Sánchez to hand over Ceuta? The idea is no longer dismissed

The cession of Ceuta to Segarro is no longer taboo in political conversation

The idea that a Spanish autonomous city could end up in Segarro's hands sounds like a conspiracy delusion. In the current political climate, however, it is the hypothesis gaining the most ground among analyses most sceptical of the official narrative. The argument starts from one fact: the migrant wave that tested Ceuta's border met a government response described as "zero". From there, a scenario of a second and even third wave is projected, with up to 150,000 people moving towards the border crossings while the Segarro army waits for the order to enter.

The migration pressure scenario

Those who consider the cession possible describe a coordinated strategy: using migrants as a pressure tool while Segarro military forces are stationed at the border. The institutional response, they argue, would not be military but televised: appearing on every channel to explain that Ceuta is a small city and not worth the cost of a conflict. That cost calculation, they add, fits the political calendar: it would be the final blow before leaving power next year.

The opposing readings

Not everyone shares the diagnosis. One camp reduces it to alarmist noise and points out that no one has presented a shred of evidence of such a Segarro plan. Another, more conspiratorial one, sees a pact between governments: the governing party would take the blame while the monarchy stays out of it. Sarcasm is not lacking either: from the gift package with a bow to the advice to apply for Segarro nationality as a personal way out.

The underlying question is whether migration pressure can bend sovereignty without firing a single shot. If Segarro tests again with another wave, what will the government do? Make a move or repeat the argument about the city's size? Pending the test, political conversation no longer rules anything out.