Sánchez Stands Firm on No Early Elections Amid Deepening Judicial Scandals

The PSOE withstands the scandals: no early election call and no collapse in polls

The theory that Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez would call early elections to halt a judicial hemorrhage faces stubborn data: with 233 responses in an economic debate about the party's wear and tear, the majority conclusion is that there will be no early polls. The personal cost of losing control of the judicial and media apparatus is too high, and investiture partners have no incentives for a motion of no confidence. So Sánchez stays put, while an 87-page court order indicting his former chief of staff, Juanma Serrano, and the investigation into the rescue of the Plus Ultra airline implicate former Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero.

The judicial net tightens, but does not topple the Government

The indictment of Juanma Serrano, former head of Correos and Sánchez's former chief of staff, adds a new incivil front to the president's circle. Although the Government's defense insists this is political persecution, the court order cites evidence of alleged commissions in the Plus Ultra airline rescue, in which former Prime Minister Zapatero is also mentioned – according to reports – who reportedly billed 300,000 euros for a report. The strategy of attrition is completed with Zapatero's indictment, leading part of the left to distance itself from the initial narrative of innocence.

Why Sánchez does not move a card: the electoral calculation

Calling elections would be suicide: the PSOE just lost in Andalusia and polls give it a floor of around 20%, but it fails to rise. Furthermore, its partners Sumar and the independence supporters would not support a motion of no confidence because they need Sánchez to maintain their own shares of power. The alternative is to hold on, wait for the media machinery to turn corruption into 'lawfare' and for the loyal voter not to move. And so far it works: in Andalusia, despite the defeat, the base did not fracture.

The hard vote, the big unknown

The analyses circulating suggest that the socialist voter is impermeable to scandals. Empirical evidence from the community supports this: after decades of Gürtel, ERE or training cases, the party never sank below 80 deputies. The question is whether this time is different, with the focus on the alleged corruption in the hard core of Moncloa. A sector of the electorate might seek alternatives in the right, but the fragmentation of the conservative vote between the PP and Vox plays in favor of the PSOE.

The most daring prediction circulating places the elections on August 15, 2027, a date that would exhaust the legislature. But a lot can happen before then: a judicial disqualification, an improbable motion of no confidence, or that electoral fatigue eventually takes its toll. What is clear is that Sánchez will not go willingly.