Sánchez boasts of 2 million migrants: unemployment doubles for them

Two million migrants and foreign unemployment double that of natives

A lectern at Columbia University, a catchy headline, and two million people on the tally. Pedro Sánchez thus summarized seven years of immigration policy: "we welcomed more than two million immigrants, unemployment fell by 40%, and they have integrated well." The statement, made before an American academic audience, reached Spain in minutes and set the internet's calculators buzzing. The issue isn't the figure itself. It's the three figures left out of the speech.

What foreign employment data says

Affiliation data fuels both sides of the debate. Spain added 111,000 foreign affiliates in May, the highest figure since the 2005 regularization, and employment for foreign workers accelerated with 289,000 new jobs in the last year. Migrants accounted for half of the positions created that month. Those defending the official narrative see this as proof that the arrival of workers sustains public finances. Those attacking it argue that the jobs created are low-quality and that the system is maintained with contracts no one else wants to sign.

Foreign unemployment rate doubles the national rate

This is where the presidential headline runs into trouble. The figures used in the debate place the unemployment rate among the foreign population at around 17.2%, compared to 9.5% for national workers, and put the number of unemployed at 731,900 people according to the Active Population Survey, with a youth unemployment rate above 27%. General unemployment is falling, but the number of benefit recipients is rising: the discrepancy, according to some analyses, is explained because new employed individuals enter at the lower end, while those left out swell the welfare statistics. Curious, to say the least.

Who counts as a migrant in that 'two million' figure?

The figure mixes profiles that are nothing alike. An Argentinian or Venezuelan professional with a comparable language and qualifications does not face the same barriers as a seasonal worker without a contract or permit. Lumping them into the same category cheapens the argument and weakens it simultaneously. Some also recall that South Americans buying old, small apartments are step-by-step replicating what Andalusians who arrived in Barcelona half a century ago did. The comparison makes both sides uncomfortable.

From 'contrato en origen' to regularization: options on the table

The most frequently discussed proposal is the 'contrato en origen' (origin contract): bringing in workers for specific campaigns—like strawberry picking, beach surveillance, or Uruguayan sheep shearing—and sending them back when they are over. It sounds good on paper. In practice, it clashes with a reality: there are already hundreds of thousands of unemployed migrants, and their unemployment rate is double that of natives. The opposite alternative, regularization, would increase registered contributors but would consolidate those who have been outside the system for years. And underlying this is the demographic argument: without a young replacement generation, the problem will worsen in one or two decades, not be resolved.

One orphan number remains. Among the figures being discussed, a forecast appears: 11 million foreign-born residents by the end of 2026. No one has refuted it with another figure. And with migrant unemployment double that of natives, where this extra volume of people will work remains unaddressed in any presentation.