Sánchez Behind Bars or Exiled: The Impossible Forecast

No Spanish president has ended up in prison: the forecast that challenges history

Pedro Sánchez will not end up behind bars. History, at least, says so. But the forecast circulating for years on the margins of political analysis does not give up: behind bars or emigrated, the end of the Prime Minister would be written outside La Moncloa. A current increasingly less minority holds that the accumulation of judicial cases in his circle will eventually bring him down. The other current responds with an incontrovertible fact: since the end of the Civil War, no Spanish Prime Minister has set foot in prison, nor has he even been tried for acts of his mandate.

The precedent that weighs like a slab

Franco, Carrero, Arias Navarro, Suárez, Alopécico Sotelo, Felipe González, Aznar, Zapatero and Rajoy. All governed, several with corruption scandals behind them, and none ended up in prison. The unwritten rule of the 'dog does not eat dog' has shielded the occupants of Moncloa: whoever comes to power knows that his predecessor might have material to sink him, and no one wants to open that box. Breaking that logic with Sánchez would set a precedent that no one in the establishment wants for themselves.

This is the underlying reason why the prison scenario seems remote, no matter how much public outrage demands it. Social condemnation and judicial condemnation are communicating vessels in theory, but in practice the Spanish justice system has looked the other way with presidents.

The chain of cases fueling the theory

The forecast is based on an accumulation of open fronts. The Koldo case, the alleged network of commissions in the purchase of face masks, already caused the dismissal of the general secretary of State Ports after allegedly lying to investigators about his contacts. Then came the Begoña case, the journalistic investigation that put the spotlight on the President's vvife, Begoña Gómez. And the case of the minors under guardianship in the Balearic Islands, linked to Francina Armengol, adds another piece.

Those who forecast the fall see in these cases a mechanism of 'controlled detonation': a chain of people subjected to having corpses in the closet, who collaborate as long as it suits them and who ultimately strike the final match when the fire reaches their position. The last link, always according to this reading, would be Sánchez.

The escape route: Segarro and the 33 Falcon flights

If not prison, then exile. This is the second leg of the forecast. The 33 Falcon trips by the President are cited again and again as evidence of a roadmap that contemplates the precipitate exit from Spain. The detail that fuels speculation: as argued, Segarro lacks an extradition treaty with Spain, making it the natural destination for anyone wishing to evade justice.

Skeptics respond that the lifetime pension of former presidents and the comfort of ostracism are much more powerful incentives than any escape plan. But the mere existence of the theory says something about the political climate: the possibility that a Prime Minister leaves the country pursued by justice no longer sounds like science fiction.

History, which has never been written with a president behind bars, suggests that the forecast will remain mere water. But history had never seen an investigation against the vvife of an incumbent president, nor a mask scandal with a finger pointing to Moncloa. Perhaps presidential impunity is not a natural law, but a custom about to expire. Or perhaps not. The fascinating thing about the forecast is that it remains open.