Sánchez aims for Spain's largest-ever migrant amnesty on Tuesday: 1.25 million
Sánchez is preparing the largest immigrant regularization in Spain's history: 1.25 million people by decree. Analysis of the figures, the economic impact and the reactions.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Sánchez aims to break records: 1.25 million immigrants regularized by decree
Pedro Sánchez's government is preparing to approve on Tuesday a mass regularization of irregular migrants which, according to the figures being handled, would exceed one million people, making it the largest in Spain's history, even above the one carried out by Jesús Caldera in 2005. The decree, to be published in the BOE (Spain's official state gazette), is initially valid for one month, but the government is already considering mechanisms to extend it and bypass parliamentary scrutiny, something that has set off every alarm bell.
Dizzying numbers: from 500,000 to 1.25 million
The official estimate speaks of 500,000 people, but various sources suggest the real figure could reach 1.25 million once family reunifications and pull effects are counted. The decree will allow the regularization of those who can prove two years of residence in Spain, but critics denounce that the process will be so lax that almost anyone will be able to obtain papers with virtually no control. Meanwhile, immigration office civil servants have gone on strike to stop the avalanche, and the government is already preparing ways to sidestep them, such as enabling post offices as processing points.
The economic and social impact: a ticking time bomb
In economic terms, the forecasts are catastrophic for the labor market, healthcare and housing. The mass regularization will inject hundreds of thousands of new job seekers into already strained sectors, drive up hospital waiting lists and cement the rental bubble. Add to this the pull effect: each person regularized will be able to bring over their family, multiplying the figure four or fivefold within a few years. In return, defenders of the measure argue that it will bring the underground economy to light and increase tax revenue, but the data from previous experiences do not support that optimism.
Political strategy: smokescreen and power grab
The timing is no coincidence. With the government in a minority and the courts on its heels, Sánchez is looking for a dramatic move that mobilizes his base and diverts attention from the corruption cases. But the gamble is risky: by approving the regularization by decree, he bypasses parliamentary control and defies the judiciary, which has already warned it could strike the measure down. Moreover, the civil servants' strike and social protests are growing, and some analysts predict a civil conflict of unknown dimensions if it is not stopped in time.
The government has peine a Pandora's box whose consequences no one can predict. The question hanging in the air is whether this measure, in addition to being a historic record, will mark the beginning of the end of the rule of law as we know it.
Related discussions in the forum
Pedro Sánchez's government is preparing to approve on Tuesday a mass regularization of irregular migrants which, according to the figures being handled, would exceed one million people, making it the largest in Spain's history, even above the one carried out by Jesús Caldera in 2005. The decree, to be published in the BOE (Spain's official state gazette), is initially valid for one month, but the government is already considering mechanisms to extend it and bypass parliamentary scrutiny, something that has set off every alarm bell.
Dizzying numbers: from 500,000 to 1.25 million
The official estimate speaks of 500,000 people, but various sources suggest the real figure could reach 1.25 million once family reunifications and pull effects are counted. The decree will allow the regularization of those who can prove two years of residence in Spain, but critics denounce that the process will be so lax that almost anyone will be able to obtain papers with virtually no control. Meanwhile, immigration office civil servants have gone on strike to stop the avalanche, and the government is already preparing ways to sidestep them, such as enabling post offices as processing points.
The economic and social impact: a ticking time bomb
In economic terms, the forecasts are catastrophic for the labor market, healthcare and housing. The mass regularization will inject hundreds of thousands of new job seekers into already strained sectors, drive up hospital waiting lists and cement the rental bubble. Add to this the pull effect: each person regularized will be able to bring over their family, multiplying the figure four or fivefold within a few years. In return, defenders of the measure argue that it will bring the underground economy to light and increase tax revenue, but the data from previous experiences do not support that optimism.
Political strategy: smokescreen and power grab
The timing is no coincidence. With the government in a minority and the courts on its heels, Sánchez is looking for a dramatic move that mobilizes his base and diverts attention from the corruption cases. But the gamble is risky: by approving the regularization by decree, he bypasses parliamentary control and defies the judiciary, which has already warned it could strike the measure down. Moreover, the civil servants' strike and social protests are growing, and some analysts predict a civil conflict of unknown dimensions if it is not stopped in time.
The government has peine a Pandora's box whose consequences no one can predict. The question hanging in the air is whether this measure, in addition to being a historic record, will mark the beginning of the end of the rule of law as we know it.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (50 replies).
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