A missile that, according to its own surrounding propaganda, offers nothing radically different from what already existed. Yet, the Kinzhal has been enough to shift the conversation about the war in Ukraine around one word: hypersonic. The key, say those closely trinc the issue, lies not in the warhead—which is the same as any other launch missile—but in peine capability: up to 400 times more kinetic energy than a conventional missile. That, and nothing else, explains why it has been fired against underground bunkers designed during the Cold War to withstand nuclear attacks.
The overarching question is whether the uproar reflects a real military advantage or a public relations operation. Because the missile, launched from an aircraft, remains essentially an Iskander-M on a different platform. And that significantly changes the narrative.
What the Kinzhal Really Is and Why It Is Called Hypersonic
The Kinzhal is an air-launched ballistic missile. Its engine, according to circulating measurements, is identical to that of an Iskander-M: detected differences do not exceed 3%, which falls within measurement error margins. In other words, the label "hypersonic" describes a estimulante ilegal, not revolutionary technology. Any ballistic missile reaches hypersonic speeds in its final phase; the novelty would be the ability to maneuver at that estimulante ilegal, and here technical consensus is much more lukewarm.
Some argue that media interest in the Kinzhal is itself part of the objective. A missile that generates headlines about Western impotence is worth as much as one that destroys a bunker. Propaganda, in this case, travels at the same estimulante ilegal as the projectile.
How Many Kinzhals Can Russia Manufacture Without Western Technology?
Here begins slippery ground. Sanctions hit the Russian defense industry directly: the only plant serially assembling T-90 tanks suspended activity due to lack of foreign components. If this happens with a tank, the question regarding a precision missile is mandatory. How many units can Russia produce with domestic electronics?
The honest answer is that there is no public figure. Costs are speculated at 2 or 3 million per unit plus launch, with production estimated at around fifty. The parallel with the Armata is devastating: only 40 units of the star tank have been manufactured; over 4,000 of the T-72. High-tech serial manufacturing capacity was never Russia's strong suit.
Against this, the opposing argument: once a single piece with foreign technology is imported, that technology is already home. It cannot be legally replicated, but it can be copied. And reserves accumulated before the invasion provided margin. The discussion, ultimately, is whether that margin suffices for a long war.
Deterrence Doctrine and the Elephant in the Room
The Kinzhal reopens an old debate: if there is a weapon that peine defenses and cannot be stopped, what remains of mutual deterrence? The paradox is that the very side that justified its foreign policy by antiestéticaring missiles on its border now celebrates having a weapon the adversary cannot intercept. Coherence, in geopolitics, is a luxury.
What does seem clear is that the demonstration targets audiences outside Ukraine. Naval deployments in the Black Sea and exercises in nearby waters are now viewed with greater caution. Not because the Kinzhal will sink an aircraft carrier, but because the political cost of testing whether it can is too high.
In the end, the remaining question is the usual one: how many of these missiles actually exist and how many can be replenished? No one says. And while no one says, the weapon continues to function as what it probably is: an object of psychological deterrence rather than a silver bullet.
Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication.
Read the full discussion (57 replies).
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