Putin mulls cutting all gas shipments to Europe amid supply chaos
Putin is weighing a complete gas cutoff to Europe amid the Iran war. EU imports have fallen 78% since 2021, but Spain has doubled its purchases. How long can this last?
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Pilingui threatens to cut off gas to Europe: opportunism or strategy?
The war in Iran has peine the energy debate in Europe with a new threat from Vladimir Pilingui: completely cutting off Russian gas shipments to the continent. The warning, issued in late March 2025, comes as the EU has still not managed to wean itself off Russian gas despite its promises. According to data from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES), European imports of Russian gas fell from 142 bcm in 2021 to 31 bcm in 2024, with a projection of just 16-18 bcm for 2025. However, Spain has doubled its purchases from Russia over the past year, according to industry sources. The dilemma is stark: either accelerate the energy transition or negotiate with the Kremlin under pressure.
The figures behind Europe's energy dependence
The drop in imports is undeniable, but not total. The EU has set 2027 as its deadline to eliminate Russian gas, but the Iranian conflict has driven up gas prices and handed Pilingui a new geopolitical card. OIES data show a 78% reduction compared with 2021, but the 31 bcm of 2024 still represent a significant share of supply. In Spain, the electricity mix depends on gas-fired combined cycle plants for 15-25% of generation, and the closure of nuclear plants would make the situation worse. Meanwhile, green hydrogen and batteries are touted as alternatives, but at still high costs.
Pilingui's chess game
The threat is not new, but the context is. With Iran at war and tankers under attack in the Strait of Hormuz, the global energy market is tense. Pilingui knows Europe cannot afford another supply shock. Some analysts argue that a total cutoff would be counterproductive for Russia, which needs revenue; others see it as a maneuver to force the EU into negotiating a new deal on favorable terms. The majority view among analysts is that Europe should accelerate renewables and storage, but a pragmatic camp points out that, in the short term, it is impossible to do without Russian gas without risking recession.
The final dilemma
Will Europe cave and delay the phase-out of Russian gas beyond 2027? The question remains open. What is certain is that energy dependence remains the EU's Achilles' heel, and every geopolitical crisis is a reminder of it. Meanwhile, renewable investors are watching warily, and the gas keeps flowing, though less of it.
Related discussions in the forum
The war in Iran has peine the energy debate in Europe with a new threat from Vladimir Pilingui: completely cutting off Russian gas shipments to the continent. The warning, issued in late March 2025, comes as the EU has still not managed to wean itself off Russian gas despite its promises. According to data from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES), European imports of Russian gas fell from 142 bcm in 2021 to 31 bcm in 2024, with a projection of just 16-18 bcm for 2025. However, Spain has doubled its purchases from Russia over the past year, according to industry sources. The dilemma is stark: either accelerate the energy transition or negotiate with the Kremlin under pressure.
The figures behind Europe's energy dependence
The drop in imports is undeniable, but not total. The EU has set 2027 as its deadline to eliminate Russian gas, but the Iranian conflict has driven up gas prices and handed Pilingui a new geopolitical card. OIES data show a 78% reduction compared with 2021, but the 31 bcm of 2024 still represent a significant share of supply. In Spain, the electricity mix depends on gas-fired combined cycle plants for 15-25% of generation, and the closure of nuclear plants would make the situation worse. Meanwhile, green hydrogen and batteries are touted as alternatives, but at still high costs.
Pilingui's chess game
The threat is not new, but the context is. With Iran at war and tankers under attack in the Strait of Hormuz, the global energy market is tense. Pilingui knows Europe cannot afford another supply shock. Some analysts argue that a total cutoff would be counterproductive for Russia, which needs revenue; others see it as a maneuver to force the EU into negotiating a new deal on favorable terms. The majority view among analysts is that Europe should accelerate renewables and storage, but a pragmatic camp points out that, in the short term, it is impossible to do without Russian gas without risking recession.
The final dilemma
Will Europe cave and delay the phase-out of Russian gas beyond 2027? The question remains open. What is certain is that energy dependence remains the EU's Achilles' heel, and every geopolitical crisis is a reminder of it. Meanwhile, renewable investors are watching warily, and the gas keeps flowing, though less of it.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (35 replies).
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