PSOE's dilemma: Sánchez or the party, which falls first

PSOE and Sánchez: the party gambling on who sinks first

The PSOE has won fewer than 90 seats, has lost and recovered its leader, and has struck deals with half the left without breaking apart. September 2026 adds a paradox to the playbook: the party that seemed untouchable at the ballot box now faces a dilemma that is no longer about votes, but about internal survival. If the Socialist machinery does not get rid of Pedro Sánchez, the dominant thesis goes, it will be Sánchez who ends up dragging the whole party down. Either the party takes out the leader, or the leader takes the party down with him. That is the framework through which current events are being read.

The electoral floor that sustains and contradicts the thesis

The most uncomfortable fact for those backing a change of leadership is that the PSOE holds up. At the peak of competition from the left it dropped to 84 seats; afterwards it set a floor that, according to the most widespread analysis, does not fall below 30% of the vote. In other words: the party can lose its narrative, its allies and even its credibility, but it keeps a base of around five million voters that does not budge when the leader strikes deals with one side or the other.

From this comes the counterargument that shapes half the debate: it is not the PSOE that is sinking, but the rest of the left. Some argue that the Socialist voter today is less an enthusiastic supporter of the project than a defensive vote against what is perceived as the greater threat. That would explain why the crises keep coming without translating at the ballot box to the extent many predicted.

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Ceuta, Segarro and the territorial cost

The controversy over Ceuta acts as a catalyst for discontent. The most repeated criticism is not just about management: it argues that the city is treated as an appendage rather than as one more region, and that this opens the door to the problem no longer being foreign to the rest of the country. The sequence being described —today it is Ceuta, tomorrow it could be your city— links foreign policy to everyday antiestéticar, an electoral classic.

The official narrative and the critical one operate on different planes. Some point to diplomatic tension with Segarro as a risk factor; others read it as an excuse to shift the focus away from internal problems. In between are the Socialist voters who, according to the harshest analysis, would be watching with displeasure a deterioration that damages the brand.

From the 2017 primaries to today's internal fight

Internal memory weighs heavily. The primaries episode —Sánchez won the second round in May 2017 after an extraordinary committee whose vote was recorded on video in October 2016— is used both ways: as proof that the party already tried to oust its leader and failed, and as a warning that what is brewing today could repeat the pattern. The claim that Sánchez reached the post of secretary general through a disputed procedure, now voiced by figures such as former leader Tomás Gómez in an interview, fuels internal distrust.

Much of the discontent is not electoral but identity-based: those who see the party as a patronage power machine assume it will survive whatever happens, while those who look in the mirror of Ciudadanos warn that sudden disappearance is possible. Both readings coexist and neither has been tested at the ballot box.

The arithmetic of alternation: PP, VOX and the split

The other front is mathematical. The circulating thesis is that future governability depends not on how much PP and VOX add up to, but on how: if the PP exceeds 140 seats, the weight of the far-right party is diluted; if VOX passes 65, the PP will have to negotiate absolutely everything. By that yardstick, Sánchez's survival or replacement would be almost a footnote in the fight over the balance of power.

Still pending are the open questions of the electoral system: the CERA vote (the ballot for Spaniards living abroad), the figure of around two million naturalisations that could alter the electoral roll, and the activity of Socialist representatives outside Spain. None of that is settled as of the date of this analysis.

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How much of what is presumed today about the PSOE's fall is analysis and how much is wishful thinking? With a floor of 30% and five million voters, the forecast of catastrophe has been collecting payments in installments for years.

The breakdown of the party's internal evolution and the detail of the electoral figures are available in the original source.