PSOE would win with 130 seats, but PP and Vox would surpass 176

Opina360: PSOE leads, Vox surges, and Sumar plummets

The PSOE would win the elections but wouldn't have enough to govern. This is the paradox presented by the Opina360 poll, broadcast on Espejo Público: 30.4% and 130 seats for the PSOE, 27.4% and 111 for the PP, 20.6% and 74 seats for Vox, 5.1% and 3 for Podemos, and 3.8% which leaves Sumar with 5 deputies. With these numbers, the 176 threshold remains elusive. Nevertheless, the discussion quickly turned to the perennial question: who commissioned the poll and why.

A New Polling Firm and an Uncomfortable Name

The most significant detail wasn't Vox's 20.6%, but the firm behind the poll. It's a new polling company, reportedly linked to Iván Redondo, former chief of staff to Pedro Sánchez. This attribution circulates without any supporting documentation, but it has been enough to prematurely end the analysis: if the poll comes from that source, the argument goes, there's nothing more to discuss.

The label "Tezanos 2" encapsulates this shortcut. The reasoning is simple: if the previous head of the CIS (Center for Sociological Research) became the scapegoat for every inconvenient poll, the new instrument merely changes its name. The problem is that this reasoning doesn't address any of the figures.

The 30% Floor and Unwavering Votes

Another perspective explains the PSOE's resilience without resorting to poll manipulation. It speaks of a structural base: a bloc of voters tied to public sector jobs, pensions, and subsidies, estimated at around 7 million people, who vote regardless of the political cycle. Added to this is a 9-10% that the space to the left of the PSOE distributes among its various parties, which also remains stable.

If both these figures hold true, the governing party doesn't drop below 30% even in its worst-case scenario. This hypothesis is debatable and highly discussed, but it has the merit of explaining why the government's perceived desgaste (wear and tear) barely affects its voting intention.

The Sum That Does Add Up: 176 Seats

With the PP at 111 seats and Vox at 74, the right-wing bloc surpasses the 176 deputies required for an absolute majority. This leads to the most common thesis: Vox grows, the PSOE comes first, Sánchez wins the election but doesn't govern. It also explains the PP's discomfort, as they are accused of mimicking the government for months instead of competing with Vox for the same electorate.

The voter transfer has fine print: a significant portion comes from voters who already leaned right. The party faltering isn't the PSOE, but the one managing the opposition.

Sumar on the Brink of Disappearance

The other headline from the poll is on the left flank. Sumar secures 5 seats and Podemos 3, figures that in practice are enough to maintain party structures and paid staff, and little more. The dominant interpretation is that the PSOE is devouring the rest of the left, and this phenomenon, far from weakening it, is what sustains its leading position.

At the opposite extreme, a minority hypothesis suggests a grand coalition scenario if the blocs don't add up: the PSOE and the PP governing together, this time openly. No one considers this likely in the short term.

Portugal, the Precedent Nobody Saw Coming

The Portuguese parallel emerges to challenge the bloc logic. There, the party comparable to Vox reportedly tied the socialist party for second place against poll predictions, and the center-right party won. Translation: forecasts fail, and parallels are also misleading.

Who Counts the Votes?

Every time a poll doesn't add up, suspicion about the vote count resurfaces. In Spain, this suspicion has a name: Indra, the company linked to some of the electoral computer systems. It's important to be explicit: there is no proof of manipulation here, not a single documented indication. People speak of pucherazo (rigged election) without providing any evidence. It's one thing for polls to be manipulated, and quite another for ballot boxes to be tampered with. The latter is not proven.

Polls to Mobilize, Not to Predict

The most pragmatic interpretation speaks not of fraud, but of function. Polls are published to activate an electorate, not to accurately portray it. It's argued that data favorable to the government often shifts just before the election, when there's no longer time for the opposing voter to become complacent. It's also argued that serious polls are conducted by the parties themselves, with their own resources and for internal use, and what reaches the public is a political weapon.

What if the poll wasn't made to be accurate, but to make some people stay home and others go out to vote?