PSOE projected to win general elections in Ceuta, says CIS

The CIS (Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas, a Spanish public polling agency) has projected the PSOE as the winner of the general elections in Ceuta, according to PP deputy José Ramírez del Río. This data contradicts the resistance shown by some socialist officials toward voting for Pedro Sánchez.

## A poll that breaks the usual pattern

The Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas has published a voting estimate for the general elections in which the PSOE appears as the leading force in Ceuta. The autonomous city is a territory where the Partido Popular has won almost every election over recent decades. The data, shared by PP deputy **José Ramírez del Río**, has circulated with sarcasm on social media.

## Irony from the PP deputy

Ramírez del Río accompanied the post with a comment: the CIS naming the PSOE the winner in Ceuta, while **socialist regional deputies** have already stated they do not intend to vote for **Pedro Sánchez**. The phrase summarizes the skepticism with which part of the political landscape receives the poll. It is not a formal challenge, but rather a mockery of the gap between the survey and the actual political climate.

## What the CIS measures and what it doesn't

A CIS barometer is a sampling estimate, not a formal count. In small constituencies like Ceuta, which has a single district and few seats at stake, margins of error carry more weight than in large provinces. The survey measures declared intention at a specific moment. It does not anticipate the actual election day results or the final seat distribution.

## Why Ceuta matters more than it seems

Ceuta elects a single deputy and a single senator. Every seat counts in tight majorities. For a national poll to place the PSOE ahead in a PP stronghold has national implications: it suggests a shift in votes or a different type of mobilization. It could also be statistical noise. The survey decides nothing; it only captures a snapshot that the official scrutiny will either correct or confirm.