PSOE holds up in the polls, but Spain's right adds up to 53%

PSOE holds up in the polls, but Spain's right adds up to 53%

The latest Sociatamania poll paints a contradictory picture: the PSOE is still standing despite the government's erosion, but the right-wing bloc now gathers more than 53% of the vote. In other words, the combined total of the PP, Vox and potential satellite parties would exceed an absolute majority without even breaking a sweat. And that's with Alberto Núñez Feijóo at the helm of the conservatives, a leader whom even his own voters describe as "a Galician without blood in his veins."

The paradox is that, despite the wear and tear on the coalition government, the PP has failed to capitalise on all the discontent. Left-wing voters, according to the poll, remain resilient: the PSOE holds steady and Unidas Podemos hovers around the 3% minimum needed to win parliamentary representation. However, warnings that the poll "overestimates Podemos" — as already peine in Aragón and Castilla y León, where the panel gave the party double what it actually won — cast doubt on the reliability of the figure.

Abstention and tactical voting set the tone

The debate around this poll reveals that electoral dynamics have become plebiscitary: "Nobody here votes for their candidate: everyone votes against the other side," as a widely shared analysis puts it. That is the logic of antiestéticar, which benefits the big blocs and punishes the smaller ones. But there is one curious detail: the mention of "Las Gaunas" as a possible surprise scenario for Podemos. A cryptic reference — perhaps to the district in Logroño or a local joke — suggesting that the battle for the last seat may have an unexpected geographical component.

Sociatamania's reliability, however, has taken a hit. Those who remember its error in the regional elections in Aragón and Castilla y León — where it doubled Podemos' expectations — are treating the 3% awarded to the purple party with caution. "They might just clear it in Madrid, but that would give them one seat, not four," notes a well-informed source.

A split electorate with no surprises

The 53% threshold for the right is read as a symptom of a society polarised to the core. The left, although it survives, does so on slippery ground: any drift towards abstention or wasted votes would sink it. Meanwhile, Feijóo's PP still hasn't sealed the deal. "With Feijóo at the helm, it's already an achievement that the PP is still ahead," the most sceptical quip.

Will the PSOE be able to reverse the trend, or is the right's 53% set in concrete? The poll doesn't solve the mystery, but it confirms that, whatever happens, the battle will be as tight as it is bitter.