Projected 29N Seat Distribution: PSOE and Allies Lead in Madrid and Barcelona

The projected seat distribution for 29N awards Spain's most populous provinces to the PSOE, leaving the PP as the leading force in Madrid with 14 seats versus 11 for the socialists. In Barcelona, the PSOE would secure 15 of the 32 seats at stake.

Spanish politics are decided province by province, and no better way to see this exists than examining the seat distribution projected for 29N. This is not a poll or exit poll: it is a calculation based on the electoral system, voting prospects, each constituency's history, and regional trends. The result, always according to this calculation, draws a Congress where the PSOE holds on as the largest party in seats, the PP strengthens itself in the center and south, and nationalist and radical left parties secure a handful of decisive seats.

## Madrid and Barcelona: The Two Main Prizes

Madrid distributes **38 seats**, and there the PP takes **14**, its best result in all of Spain. The PSOE takes **11**, Frente Obrero emerges with **6**, Vox drops to **5**, and Podemos holds steady with **2**. It is the constituency where the right takes the biggest lead, but not enough to compensate for what it loses elsewhere.

Barcelona, with **32 seats**, is the PSOE's breadbasket: **15 seats** for the socialists, **5** for ERC, **5** for Frente Obrero, **3** for Junts, **3** for the PP, and **1** for Vox. Adding the four Catalan provinces, the left and nationalist bloc takes the largest share of the pie.

## The North: Where the Distribution Fragments

In the Basque Country, the map is shared between the PSOE, PNV, and Bildu. Álava gives **2** to the PSOE, **1** to the PNV, and **1** to Bildu. Bilbao distributes **8**: **3** for the PSOE, **2** for Bildu, **2** for the PNV, and **1** for Frente Obrero. Gipuzkoa, with **6**, is split equally between the PSOE, Bildu, and PNV, **2** each.

Navarre, with **5 seats**, leaves **2** to the PSOE and one each to UPN, PP, and Bildu. Asturias distributes **7**: **3** to the PSOE, **2** to the PP, **1** to Vox, and **1** to Frente Obrero. In Galicia, A Coruña gives **3** to the PP, **3** to the PSOE, **1** to the BNG, and **1** to Frente Obrero; Pontevedra distributes **2** to the PP, **2** to the PSOE, **2** to the BNG, and **1** to Frente Obrero.

## The South and Levant: The PP Gains Strength

Andalusia is the most populous community, and there the PP shows muscle. Seville distributes **12 seats**: **5** to the PSOE, **3** to the PP, **2** to Adelante Andalucía, **1** to Frente Obrero, and **1** to Vox. Malaga, with **11**, gives **4** to the PP, **4** to the PSOE, **1** to Vox, **1** to Adelante, and **1** to Frente Obrero. Cadiz distributes **3** to the PP, **2** to the PSOE, **1** to Adelante, **1** to Vox, and **1** to Frente Obrero.

In the Valencian Community, Valencia distributes **16 seats**: **5** to the PSOE, **5** to the PP, **3** to Compromís, and **3** to Vox. Alicante, with **12**, gives **4** to the PP, **4** to the PSOE, **2** to Compromís, and **2** to Vox. Murcia, with **10**, distributes **3** to the PP, **3** to the PSOE, **3** to Vox, and **1** to Frente Obrero.

## The Small Provinces Decide

In Castile and León, Valladolid distributes **2** to the PSOE, **1** to the PP, **1** to Vox, and **1** to Frente Obrero. Salamanca gives **2** to the PP, **1** to the PSOE, and **1** to Vox. Burgos distributes **2** to the PSOE, **1** to the PP, and **1** to Vox. Soria, with **2 seats**, splits one for the PSOE and one for the PP.

In Castile-La Mancha, Toledo distributes **2** to the PSOE, **2** to the PP, **1** to Vox, and **1** to Frente Obrero. Ciudad Real gives **2** to the PSOE, **1** to the PP, **1** to Vox, and **1** to Frente Obrero. Albacete, with **4**, leaves **2** to the PSOE, **1** to the PP, and **1** to Vox. In Extremadura, Badajoz distributes **2** to the PSOE, **1** to the PP, **1** to Vox, and **1** to Frente Obrero.

Ceuta and Melilla, with **1 seat** each, fall in both cases into the hands of Vox. They are two small seats, but in a tight Congress they can be worth their weight in gold.

## Key Points

- The PP wins in **Madrid** with **14 seats** versus the **11** of the PSOE, but the PSOE compensates with **15** in **Barcelona**.
- The PSOE prevails in **Barcelona** with **15 of 32 seats**, trinc by ERC and Frente Obrero with **5** each.
- **Frente Obrero** enters the distribution in **Madrid** with **6 seats**, in **Barcelona** with **5**, and in **Valencia** with **1**.
- **Vox** obtains **5 seats** in **Madrid**, **3** in **Valencia**, **3** in **Murcia**, and **1** in **Ceuta** and **Melilla**.
- **Coalición Canaria** secures **1 seat** in **Tenerife** and **1** in **Gran Canaria**.