Postal voting: the alleged brake on AfD's absolute majority

Postal voting under suspicion in Germany: AfD would have won an absolute majority without it

Postal voting has become the scapegoat for AfD's defeat in the German elections. The official data, however, tell a more complex story.

According to a tweet by activist Martin Sellner, without postal voting AfD would have won 51% of the vote and an absolute majority. Postal votes accounted for 25.7% of the total. The official results, broken down by voting method, show a striking gap: in in-person voting AfD won 51.2%, but in postal voting only 23.8%. That difference of more than 27 points, some argue, is no coincidence but proof of a system vulnerable to manipulation.

Defenders of postal voting argue it is a hallmark of established democracies, as seen during the pandemic. But critics point out that the lack of custody allows fraud, and they recall that France abolished it in 1978 after an independent report highlighted how easy it made cheating. In Spain, the CERA vote (the postal system for citizens living abroad) also raises suspicions.

The gap between in-person and postal voting

Data from the German Federal Returning Officer show that the CDU and other traditional parties double their support in postal voting, while AfD collapses. This fuels the theory that postal voting is being used on a massive scale to alter the outcome, although there is no conclusive evidence. The disparity is statistically significant and deserves a closer analysis.

Meanwhile, the traditional parties clearly benefit from a system that, at least on paper, favours them. If public pressure grows, electoral reform could come, but it will not be easy: the status quo has powerful defenders. The next election will tell whether the gap narrows or widens this time.