Pelosi, Taiwan, and China's threat to shoot down her plane

Pelosi, Taiwan, and China's threat to shoot down her plane

In August 2022, the third-highest-ranking official in the United States was preparing to board a plane bound for Taipei. Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House of Representatives, was 82 years old and had a plan that the Pentagon, the CIA, and even President Biden had asked her to abandon. Ultimately, the visit went ahead. China had warned of military reprisals, including shooting down the aircraft.

A Chinese destroyer off the coast of Taiwan

The sequence of events is well-known. A Chinese military destroyer was stationed off the coast of Taiwan. Asian stock markets fell amid antiestéticars of regional destabilization. According to a tweet cited in the thread, Taoyuan Airport in Taipei received a letter threatening three bombs to disrupt the visit. China broke off relations with the United States in response to the visit, according to a headline cited in the thread.

The question hanging over everything was simple: why? What drove an 82-year-old politician to defy both her own military establishment and the world's second-largest power? Some argue that Pelosi was not acting on her own volition but was trinc orders to provoke a conflict. Others doubt that the Pentagon and the CIA publicly begged her not to go. A third perspective suggests that Xi Jinping needed the episode to reinforce his message to the Taiwanese: be careful, these people will get you into trouble and then abandon you.

Can China invade Taiwan? The military calculation

In the thread, a participant argued that it would take a thousand ships or more to transport an invasion force of 10 divisions.

That doesn't miccionan Beijing couldn't stage a show of force. Indeed, the BBC reported that China could mount a military display if Pelosi visited the island. Insurgent noted that it remains to be seen whether the plane would actually be shot down.

The economy as a backdrop: 10.8% inflation

While the debate raged over whether a plane would be shot down, the thread cited that inflation accelerated in July to 10.8%, the highest in 38 years, during the peak tourist season. A US recession was also mentioned, and one participant speculated that a war with China would be economic suicide.

A participant argued that the NATO summit had identified China as a threat to the world and that if NATO declares you an enemy, you have to react or you're dead. According to him, Americans and Chinese know this, the Pelosi incident was part of the plan, very similar to Ukraine, and he claimed they want wars at all costs and would sacrifice Formosa if necessary.

The Trump-Xi precedent that almost no one remembers

A participant stated, citing a media outlet, that Trump ended his term by signing both a trade peace treaty and a non-aggression pact with Xi. He argued that hegemonic propaganda barely mentioned it, preferring to overemphasize the menacing aspect for world peace.

The thread left a lingering question: Insurgent noted that it remains to be seen whether the plane would be shot down, while others speculated about the intentions of Pelosi and China.