Pedro Baños: military analyst's credibility under scrutiny

Pedro Baños, in the crosshairs of his own audience

Retired colonel Pedro Baños, one of the most visible geopolitical analysts on Spanish television, has become the target of a smear campaign that comes not from the powers that be, but from his own audience. The accusation is blunt: he would be a "controlled dissident," someone who drops a few truths to shield other lies. The trigger has been his coverage of the Iran war. According to critics, he went as far as predicting the conflict would last two months and that the US fleet would be wiped out. It did not happen. And, to add fuel to the fire, the analyst reportedly kept the same "experts" on his show without correcting himself or apologizing. The drift, they say, has been going on for at least a year and a half, even before his retirement.

The two readings of the phenomenon

One camp holds that Baños has been bought, or at least swayed by something beyond his pension and his books. Another, more charitable view sees him as an analyst who lost his way – bringing on collaborators who defend fringe theories such as the orcas – but with no deliberate intent to deceive. In between, the sarcasm: those who recall that his appearance alongside Iker Jiménez during an "operation" already raised suspicions of manipulation. The irony of the case is that most of his income does not depend on the media, but on the readers of his books and a military pension. That makes bribery less plausible, but the change of course no less unsettling. His audience, skeptical by nature, seeks a rational explanation for why someone with their future fully secured would gamble it all on failed predictions and questionable company. The more conspiracy-minded, as always, go further and speculate that the price of speaking plainly will be an "accident." The dark humor that creeps into these conversations says more about the mood than any argument ever could. For now, Pedro Baños remains at his post, and the only certainty is that his flock no longer takes his word as gospel. No one has yet explained how a credibility shattered to pieces can be rebuilt.