Oil is set to surge sharply, but not without limits
An analysis of the oil price debate: strategic reserves vs. supply collapse. Will prices rise moderately or will rationing follow?
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
The crude oil battle: between reserve releases and supply collapse
While official headlines insist that the IEA's release of strategic reserves will stabilise oil prices, more than 150 dollars per barrel is already being paid in real market auctions. The gap between the narrative and reality points to a scenario that, for many, can only end in rationing.
The release effect: a patch lasting days
The IEA authorised member countries to release their strategic reserves. Spain, in particular, put 11 million barrels on the market (not 2 as initially reported), sold at market price. The official argument: they were bought cheap and sold dear, even generating a small accounting profit. But the impact lasts days: 11 million barrels barely cover one week's consumption. They do not solve the underlying problem: global supply is strangled.
The real market: auctions at $150 and rationing
While the official crude price remains at high but controlled levels, sources indicate that actual purchases on the free market are being closed at more than 150 dollars per barrel. The official quotation would be a fiction, a price imposed on captive producers. On top of this, the United States cannot increase its shale production (in decline), Venezuela is not pumping more, and Russia is already selling all its oil. The Strait of Hormuz, key for Asia, is at the centre of the storm. Only 7% of the oil the US imports passes through there, but for Australia the dependence is total, and a recent article warns it has one month left before rationing.
The conclusion of the debate is clear: those betting on a moderate rise trust in the reserves and in the IEA's ability to contain panic. Those who see disaster point out that the supply fundamentals cannot deliver more, and that the reserve release is a patch that does not stop the haemorrhage. The question left hanging: will we see petrol at 3 euros a litre before summer?
Related discussions in the forum
While official headlines insist that the IEA's release of strategic reserves will stabilise oil prices, more than 150 dollars per barrel is already being paid in real market auctions. The gap between the narrative and reality points to a scenario that, for many, can only end in rationing.
The release effect: a patch lasting days
The IEA authorised member countries to release their strategic reserves. Spain, in particular, put 11 million barrels on the market (not 2 as initially reported), sold at market price. The official argument: they were bought cheap and sold dear, even generating a small accounting profit. But the impact lasts days: 11 million barrels barely cover one week's consumption. They do not solve the underlying problem: global supply is strangled.
The real market: auctions at $150 and rationing
While the official crude price remains at high but controlled levels, sources indicate that actual purchases on the free market are being closed at more than 150 dollars per barrel. The official quotation would be a fiction, a price imposed on captive producers. On top of this, the United States cannot increase its shale production (in decline), Venezuela is not pumping more, and Russia is already selling all its oil. The Strait of Hormuz, key for Asia, is at the centre of the storm. Only 7% of the oil the US imports passes through there, but for Australia the dependence is total, and a recent article warns it has one month left before rationing.
The conclusion of the debate is clear: those betting on a moderate rise trust in the reserves and in the IEA's ability to contain panic. Those who see disaster point out that the supply fundamentals cannot deliver more, and that the reserve release is a patch that does not stop the haemorrhage. The question left hanging: will we see petrol at 3 euros a litre before summer?
Related discussions in the forum
- Something is up with the Russian offensive: it is bogged down and suffering heavy losses. The Ladas are starting to run out!!! vol. v · 48660 replies
- War in Syria xlviii · 27525 replies
- War in Ukraine xxvi · 74944 replies
- War in the Middle East. · 47153 replies
Also available in: Deutsch
Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (11 replies).
More summaries
-
Has Trumpstein been deliberately driving up oil prices to aid his master Pooptin once again?
Actions by **Donald Trump** in 2025 and 2026 that allegedly caused the increase in oil prices are under investigation.
-
Hormuz, Oil, and Ceuta: The Looming Collapse Scenario
Iran's front, the Strait of Hormuz, and oil are at the heart of collapse scenarios being debated, with Morocco playing a critical role in the Gibraltar passage.
-
US strategic reserves down to 40% as Brent hits $97
US strategic oil reserves fall to 40% while Brent touches $97 a barrel. The Venezuela deal and diesel prices are the key factors.
-
Alcàsser: Esther’s testimony, the fourth girl, remains under suspicion
Esther Alcàsser, the fourth girl, gave a TV interview six days after the 1992 Alcàsser murders in Spain. Her account and timeline discrepancies fuel ongoing controversy.
-
Four signals to watch before any invasion of Taiwan
Eight training aircraft in Laos and live-fire drills in five coastal zones: this is how the risk of war with Taiwan is measured. These are the signals experts are watching.
-
Trump names Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner as special peace envoys for Moscow
Trump appointed Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner as special peace envoys; they have already met Russian envoys in Moscow and are expected to visit Kyiv.