Oil in free fall: 4 million barrel daily surplus as Hormuz reopens

Oil in free fall: Brent breaks below $80 and enters bear market territory

Brent futures for July delivery posted another red session, with losses exceeding 4% during the day. Over the past four sessions, the global benchmark crude has shed almost 16%, breaking through the psychological support level of $80. The trigger: the imminent reopening of Hormuz, which could add a surplus of 4 million barrels per day to the market. A figure that, if confirmed, would bury any narrative of scarcity.

The end of the scarcity era or a bear trap

Peak oil advocates have been predicting the collapse of production for years, but the data is turning against them. While doom-mongers cling to Antonio Turiel, the reality is that electric vehicles and artificial intelligence have driven a wave of efficiency and new extraction technologies. Elon Musk sums it up: an era of superabundance is coming. It's not just theory: the market is already pricing in an oversupply that could last for months.

Petrol at €1.10: the consumer wins (for now)

As futures plunge, prices not seen in years are already appearing at the pump. One user reports filling up with 95-octane petrol at €1.10 per litre on Saturday. Electricity, however, remains expensive: at €0.27 per kWh plus VAT, which undermines the argument that electric cars make financial sense compared to diesel at these crude price levels. The dieselgustazo is served.

The Stone Age didn't end because we ran out of stones, and the same will happen with oil: it will continue to be used, but in much smaller quantities. For now, the reopening of Hormuz threatens to flood the market with crude, and the bulls are rubbing their hands. The bears, meanwhile, wonder whether this time is different.