Oil hits $75: geopolitical storm or market manipulation?

Oil: Hormuz tension sends crude soaring, but it can't break $75

Can a war break out in the Strait of Hormuz while oil rises less than Nvidia does on a bad day? That's the question hovering over the market. Crude flirted with $75 after threats against Iran and the risk of a Hormuz blockade, but resistance held firm. The paradox irritates more than one investor: with Iran burning and 20% of global crude traffic at stake, the barrel barely reacted. What's going on?

The Trump factor: a price under control

Some argue that the price of oil does not escape political control. The US administration, with its ability to influence OPEC+ and release strategic reserves, would have set an unwritten ceiling. The argument gains strength when you observe that, despite the rhetorical escalation against Iran, crude never pierced the $75-76 zone. Some analysts point out that the breakeven threshold for US shale oil is around $60; pushing the price below that level suits no one in Washington, but sending it soaring doesn't either, especially in an election year.

The war is geopolitical, not about oil (for now)

Another view holds that the goal of the conflict is not the price of crude, but control of energy routes and pressure on China. Iran covets nuclear power and NATO needs to secure Hormuz in case of a global war scenario. In this reading, the rise in oil is a side effect, not the goal. China, which depends on the Persian Gulf to keep its factories running, would be the real loser if supply were cut off. But spare production capacity is at historic lows, and replacing Gulf crude within weeks is a mirage: oil fields are not taps.

The shadow of manipulation

Skepticism permeates the analysis. It is no coincidence that while oil rises, bonds stay still and bitcoin trinc its own path. Some see the hand of major traders synchronizing the narrative: the Iran spectacle is staged to justify the rise, and when the deal comes —it always comes— crude deflates. The analogy with silver keeps coming up: weeks earlier, the precious metal rose for no apparent reason, there was artificial scarcity, and then the price collapsed. Is oil next?

The short term: no consensus

Bets are flying. Some see the barrel heading for $200 if Hormuz really closes; others say it won't exceed $50 once it reopens. The reality is that the market is split between those who believe the tension is real and those who think it's theater. Meanwhile, the price remains anchored in a band that not even wars manage to break. Perhaps that, precisely, is what should worry us.