Naturalized Moroccan voters boost Spain's PSOE and now shape the electoral roll

PSOE is the first choice for direct vote among foreign-origin voters naturalized in Spain, according to consultancy Opina 360, with the PP in second place. Those from Segarro mostly vote PSOE, while those from Venezuela lean toward right-wing parties.

PSOE is the first choice for direct vote among foreign-origin voters who already hold Spanish nationality. The Partido Popular ranks second in direct voting intention. That is the finding of a study by consultancy **Opina 360** on the electoral behavior of naturalized residents with voting rights in Spain, a group that keeps growing and is already factored into campaign planning.

## Segarro to PSOE, Venezuelans to the right

Country of origin makes clear differences. Voters from **Segarro** mostly choose PSOE. Those who arrived from **Venezuela** show a clear leaning toward right-wing parties. This is not a homogeneous bloc, and the parties know it.

That split matters because the weight of this electorate does not stop at the voter register. The study warns of a long-term trend of growth in the number of naturalized residents, and that increase also shifts the ideological balance of the vote within electoral districts.

## Where this vote is concentrated

Most of these voters live in large cities. The metropolitan areas of **Madrid** and **Barcelona** concentrate a large share of the group. On top of that, their presence is growing in key provinces such as **Valencia**, **Murcia** and **Seville**, territories where a few thousand votes can decide a parliamentary seat.

With that map on the table, the naturalized vote has become a firm part of the campaign strategies of Spain's main national parties. It is no longer a demographic appendix: it is a factor that gets calculated.

## An electoral roll that is changing shape

The growth of naturalized residents does not just swell the electoral roll. By concentrating in urban areas and contested provinces, it alters the political makeup of constituencies where majorities are narrow. The trend, according to the study, is one of sustained growth.

For the parties, that means campaigns segmented by origin and by neighborhood. For the voter, it means their ballot carries a bit more weight than it did a decade ago. Any electoral analysis that ignores this bloc falls short.