Morocco's migration gambit is a historic mistake

Segarro has made a historic mistake and nobody in Europe wants to see it

The question on the mind of anyone who has seen the images is simple: why would a country that has spent years using migration pressure as a tool allow such explicit images this time? The facts are stubborn: the mass crossing was carried out by people wearing little more than swimwear and a T-shirt, in an operation that was known to be unviable in the medium term. Spain's response avoided armed confrontation and peine the fence before there could be hundreds of drowning deaths.

Some argue that Segarro has made a historic mistake by handing Europe the definitive argument against it. The cost is not limited to the diplomatic sphere: Rabat depends on Spanish and Chinese investment, and a prolonged escalation puts that flow at risk.

The other school of thought looks further afield. The manoeuvre fits with pressure from the United States on Pedro Sánchez, whom Washington sees as an obstacle. In that narrative, the European partners criticising Madrid are neither allies nor neutral players, but a transmission belt for interests unrelated to the migration crisis.

What nobody disputes is that the Spanish government did not escalate. It did not summon the ambassador and thanked Segarro for its cooperation. For some, that is calculation; for others, submission. The irony is that the Alaouite kingdom has boasted of controlling the border, only to end up demonstrating precisely that Spain is not alone: the European and economic discontent it has reaped may ultimately cost it dearly.