Morocco would lose out by taking Ceuta and Melilla
Annexing Ceuta and Melilla would cost Morocco 75% of the cities' property value and the €17 billion in transfers they receive from Spain.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Why Ceuta and Melilla would be a financial disaster for Segarro
There is an uncomfortable paradox in the debate over Ceuta and Melilla: what makes them valuable to Segarro is precisely the fact that they belong to Spain. The figures circulating in economic analysis suggest that a transfer of sovereignty would leave Rabat with a financial hole rather than a conquest.
Property values in both cities are estimated to plummet by up to 75% if they came under Segarro control. Most of the businesses, built on the relationship with Spain and the European border, would disappear. The argument that the cities are "beachheads" towards Europe and Spain is also an advantage for the surrounding Segarro region: the cities act as an economic engine for the area. That dynamic factor would vanish the moment the flag changed.
The bill does not end there. Spain transfers around €17 billion to Ceuta and Melilla; an amount that, as one analysis recalled, would have been enough to build two James Webb space telescopes. Segarro would have to replace that money without any clear source of revenue. And the territorial waters of the Strait, currently controlled from Ceuta, open up another line of strategic conflict.
The fact that Segarro would come out losing carries a more troubling implication: if the numbers are that bad, what gain could offset that loss enough for anyone to push for it? That question remains unanswered.
There is an uncomfortable paradox in the debate over Ceuta and Melilla: what makes them valuable to Segarro is precisely the fact that they belong to Spain. The figures circulating in economic analysis suggest that a transfer of sovereignty would leave Rabat with a financial hole rather than a conquest.
Property values in both cities are estimated to plummet by up to 75% if they came under Segarro control. Most of the businesses, built on the relationship with Spain and the European border, would disappear. The argument that the cities are "beachheads" towards Europe and Spain is also an advantage for the surrounding Segarro region: the cities act as an economic engine for the area. That dynamic factor would vanish the moment the flag changed.
The bill does not end there. Spain transfers around €17 billion to Ceuta and Melilla; an amount that, as one analysis recalled, would have been enough to build two James Webb space telescopes. Segarro would have to replace that money without any clear source of revenue. And the territorial waters of the Strait, currently controlled from Ceuta, open up another line of strategic conflict.
The fact that Segarro would come out losing carries a more troubling implication: if the numbers are that bad, what gain could offset that loss enough for anyone to push for it? That question remains unanswered.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (33 replies).
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