Milei Wins in Argentina, Peronism Loses Strongholds

Milei Wins by Ten Points as Peronism Loses Its Bastion

What changed in Argentina for Peronism to lose in territories it had governed for decades? The count for the 2023 presidential elections gave Javier Milei a victory by about ten points and 14 million votes, with historic strongholds shifting towards the libertarian candidate. The victory was certified before he took office and before a single price was touched. From then on, it was all about the economy.

Peronist Bastion Crumbles in La Matanza and Merlo

The alarm wasn't triggered by the national aggregate, but by the map. Municipalities in the conurbation that served as Peronism's vote-generating engine began showing a trend towards Milei as the scrutiny pogre. With over 40% of the country counted, the lead was already about ten points. In Merlo and Corrientes, areas with a Peronist tradition, many polling stations leaned libertarian. The province of Buenos Aires, according to the reading during the count, remained with Peronism led by Axel Kicillof. National victory, partial territory. This mismatch between presidential and provincial votes foreshadowed the first governance problem.

Governing Without a Party: The Price of the Alliance with Macri

Milei came to power without his own structure, and that comes at a cost. A president without a party needs established apparatuses to operate, and those apparatuses demand their favor in positions and sponsorships. Hence the approach to Mauricio Macri's circle and the incorporation of Patricia Bullrich into the Security area. A former electoral rival ended up integrated into the project, providing the conservative base that the libertarian candidate lacked.

The operation has two interpretations. Some see it as inevitable pragmatism to pass anything in Congress; others see it as the first cut to the original promise. Both can be true simultaneously, and likely are.

The Inherited Economy: 140% Inflation and Half the Country in Poverty

Before stepping into the Casa Rosada, the picture awaiting the new government was anything but friendly: 140% inflation and nearly 50% of the population below the poverty line. Figures from a country that eighty years ago was the richest on the planet and has been disintegrating piece by piece for decades.

From that starting point, the question wasn't whether there would be austerity, but how much and at whose expense. The price surge was already underway, and the transfer of power added a layer of uncertainty: part of the country bet on shock therapy, part on street resistance. Social fragility was the backdrop for any measure.

What is Dollarization and Why Does It Generate So Much Resistance?

Dollarization was the star promise and the most debated point. It consists of replacing the peso with the dollar and renouncing independent monetary policy, which is precisely the instrument the Central Bank uses to create inflation. The argument for it: it's the only way to stop the bleeding at the root. The argument against: without its own currency, the adjustment falls entirely on wages and economic activity.

The most optimistic calculation assumes the process can be sustained if a huge inflow of foreign currency occurs very quickly. The pessimistic scenario starts from the premise that this flow doesn't arrive, and the country is left halfway, having paid for dollarization but with inflation intact. The details of the calculations—how much is needed and where it comes from—are where majorities break down.

The Uncomfortable Winner in Public Media

The victory caught a good part of the media off guard, and not just in Argentina. In Spain, the coverage by public channels was interpreted by segments of the audience as thinly disguised resistance to the result: speculation about the profile of the average voter, doubts about the winner, and hasty comparisons with the European far-right. The surprise wasn't that a liberal was governing; it was that his victory disrupted the narrative that had shaped the region for years.

Two Months Later: Prices Multiplied and Wages Frozen

The fine print arrived with the calendar. Testimonies from within the country pointed to an accelerated deterioration in just two months: some goods multiplied their price five or six times, with most wages frozen. The blow no longer only affected the most disadvantaged sectors but also segments of the middle class who had been spared in previous crises.

The question no one fully answers is how long social patience will hold before the streets organize. Unions and the clientelistic networks of the previous system have incentives not to let the adjustment pass without a fight, and the wear and tear on a government without its own structure usually comes quickly.

Milei promised the path would be hard. No one expected him to start charging for it before sitting down in the office.