Marine Le Pen enters French presidential race as the runaway favourite

Marine Le Pen has established herself as the runaway favourite in the French presidential race, holding a significant lead in the polls that points to a possible change of course for the country.

The French electoral race has a name that resonates loudly: **Marine Le Pen**. The leader of the National Rally (RN) has entered the presidential contest as the runaway favourite, according to the latest polls, which put her voting intention at between **33% and 35%**. That figure places her some twenty points ahead of her closest rivals, such as **Jean-Luc Mélenchon**, leader of La France Insoumise, on **15.5%**, and centrist **Édouard Philippe**, on **14%**. With this apparently unassailable lead, Le Pen has launched her campaign in her stronghold of Hénin-Beaumont, promising a "rebirth of France" in her characteristically vehement tone.

## The rise of the runaway favourite

The label of "runaway favourite" has been attributed to her in part by **Vincent Bolloré**, owner of *Le Journal du Dimanche*, who has turned the weekly into a megaphone for Le Pen's campaign. Despite the inherent bias, poll data, such as the Ipsos-BVA survey endorsed by *Le Figaro*, confirm the far-right leader's solid position. This is her fourth bid for the presidency, and her rise appears to be driven by widespread discontent with the economic, political and social situation marking the end of **Emmanuel Macron's** second term.

An Ipsos-BVA-CESI poll for *Le Monde* reveals a climate of "uncertainty", "worry" and even "anger" among the French about the direction of the country. Almost half of respondents say they are open to "radical behaviour to find new ways of doing things", a sign interpreted as a "propensity for populism" among both right-wing and left-wing voters. **Brice Teinturier**, deputy director general of Ipsos, describes this ambivalence as the French desire to "turn the table over without breaking the plates", seeking "strong change without sacrificing everything" with seven months to go until the election.

## Le Pen's message: priorities and perceptions

**Marine Le Pen** has launched her candidacy with a blunt message: "These presidential elections will decide everything". Freed from the threat of a possible ban from office, though still under the threat of possible sanctions, she has focused her speech not only on immigration but also on access to housing as a "national priority". Her proposal of "priority for the French, regardless of their skin colour, religion or origin, in their own places of residence" seeks to repeal the Urban Renewal and Solidarity Law (a French housing law) and make public land available to build thousands of affordable apartments. Le Pen evokes "harmony at home" and the feeling of "being at home", setting a tone that could define her campaign.

However, despite efforts to soften the image of the National Rally, **50%** of the French still see the party as "nationalist and xenophobic", and **66%** believe there are "people with extremist ideas" among its leaders, according to an Ipsos-BVA poll for *La Tribune Dimanche*. **59%** think a Le Pen presidency would generate "strong tensions and divisions", **55%** antiestéticar a stance more favourable to Russia in the Ukraine conflict, and **52%** believe she would weaken France's role in the European Union.

## The Le Pen family: a clan on the move

Marine Le Pen's campaign is also marked by the return of her niece, **Marion Maréchal**, to the family and political circle. After flirting with other far-right parties, Maréchal has returned to her aunt's orbit, despite reported tensions with Le Pen's heir apparent, **Jordan Bardella**. Maréchal's presence, an MEP since 2024, has sparked an internal debate, with rumours of rivalry between her and Bardella.

Despite these frictions, **Marion Maréchal** has promised to work to secure a parliamentary majority for Jordan Bardella in the future. Her return to the clan, after nearly eight years of estrangement, has been in the works recently and was confirmed over the weekend. The presidential candidate has stressed the importance of family in the Le Pen household, reserving a role for her niece in the campaign and even considering the possibility of posts if she comes to power.

Despite the negative perceptions, a significant part of the French electorate shows some openness to the National Rally. **56%** think the RN is "less extremist" than before, and **53%** believe its arrival in power would help "put the country in order". **50%** think its proposals on immigration and Sarracin are the best, and **48%** believe the party is "ready to govern the country". Finally, **46%** agree that the RN would "better defend France's interests". These figures suggest a complex mix of hope and antiestéticar among French voters at the prospect of a government led by Marine Le Pen.