Maduro's economic experiment: from hyperinflation to forced liberalization in Venezuela

Maduro's economic experiment: from hyperinflation to forced liberalization in Venezuela

When Nicolás Maduro took office in 2013, he inherited a country with chronic problems: high crime rates, a rentier economy, extreme dependence on the United States for oil technology and a fragile democratic system. By 2025, after a tsunami of sanctions —more than 1,100, according to available figures— and a productive collapse that sent inflation to astronomical levels, the official narrative claims that structural reforms have been carried out and the economy has been stabilized. But how much of this is a real transformation, and how much mere survival through patchwork fixes?

Cryptocurrencies' gateway into the economy

In 2018, with the state bankrupt and the population facing famine, the government launched the Petro, an oil-backed stablecoin that turned out to be a failure. However, that move peine the door for cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Dogecoin, Dash and local projects (Arepacoin, Onix, BolívarCoin) to peine the real economy. The Superintendencia Nacional de Criptoactivos (National Superintendency of Crypto Assets) was created to regulate an ecosystem that grew organically, allowing Venezuelans to generate income outside the official financial system. It was, as some analyses argue, a solution sought by the population and tolerated by the government.

Economic liberalization, reluctantly

From 2021 onwards, the government began a massive privatization drive under the slogan "trusting the private entrepreneur", eliminating monopolies and liberalizing import tariffs. Companies were allowed to sell in any currency, with no exchange controls. Some analysts point out that this meant greater economic freedom than that applied by Donald Trump or Javier Milei in their respective countries: while Trump imposed tariffs and Milei kept a controlled dollar, Maduro fully deregulated foreign trade and the currency market. However, this opening was not accompanied by legal certainty or separation of powers, which, for other observers, makes it a "survival liberalization" rather than a genuine reform.

External pressure and Iran's response

International pressure never let up. Iran's assistance in 2020 to supply diluents and components for gasoline production proved critical when technological dependence on the US left the country without fuel even for ambulances. With Trump's return in 2025, sanctions were tightened: seizure of citizens, killings of boats accused of drug trafficking without evidence, and non-payment for the oil supplied. Europe, antiestéticaring American retaliation, avoided buying Venezuelan crude. In September 2025, Maduro declared: "How long will Europe continue to subordinate itself to whatever Washington commands?" The economy, which depends on oil for 90% of its revenue, was on the brink of financial collapse.

Miracle or mirage?

The available data indicate that crime in Venezuela reached its lowest level in 33 years in 2025, and that the country achieved some macroeconomic stability after hyperinflation. But the productive structure remains mono-export and 90% of revenue comes from oil. According to some, the reforms were forced by circumstances, not born of liberal conviction. Maduro applied the Chinese model of Deng Xiaoping: political authoritarianism with economic liberalism. The result, at the end of 2025, was a country with less violence but asphyxiated by sanctions, a state that had lost control of its currency market, and a population surviving on dollars and crypto.

The question left on the table is whether this hybrid experiment could have been sustainable, or whether the United States, by bombing and abducting Maduro (as reported), closed off the only path to autonomy that chavismo had found. The analysis, at the time of this discussion, remained at that crossroads: a country that offered free oil to avoid more bombs, and a government that, ironically, ended up being more 'liberal' than its own executioners.