Madrid housing prices fall 5% in two months, notaries report
Housing prices in Madrid dropped 4.4% in two months according to notarial data: from €5,385/m2 to €5,148/m2. The start of a slump or a mirage?
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Madrid housing: prices down 5% in two months, according to notaries
Notarial property sales records in Madrid show a 4.4% drop in the average price per square metre between April and June, falling from €5,385 to €5,148. For some, this marks the end of the endless climb.
Turning point or just seasonality?
The first figure, provided by notarial statistics, contrasts with the upward trend of recent years. Those who have been warning of a bubble for years see here the long-awaited signal: the moment when buyers refuse to pay inflated prices. The argument goes that younger generations lack purchasing power and that the impact of artificial intelligence on employment could accelerate the correction.
On the other hand, some point out that similar drops in notarial data have been published before, only to be later reversed. The short two-month series does not allow us to speak of a trend, and the market is still underpinned by immigration-driven demand and the lack of supply.
The role of Sareb and public bailouts
One recurring criticism is the contradiction between the claim that housing always goes up and the permanent bailout of the sector with public money through Sareb (Spain's state-owned asset management company). If the market is so buoyant, why does it need capital injections? The notaries' figure adds tension to that debate.
The ultimate question is whether this correction takes hold or fades away. Asking prices on portals such as Idealista do not yet reflect widespread declines, but some sellers are already lowering their expectations. The market is waiting for the July data.
Notarial property sales records in Madrid show a 4.4% drop in the average price per square metre between April and June, falling from €5,385 to €5,148. For some, this marks the end of the endless climb.
Turning point or just seasonality?
The first figure, provided by notarial statistics, contrasts with the upward trend of recent years. Those who have been warning of a bubble for years see here the long-awaited signal: the moment when buyers refuse to pay inflated prices. The argument goes that younger generations lack purchasing power and that the impact of artificial intelligence on employment could accelerate the correction.
On the other hand, some point out that similar drops in notarial data have been published before, only to be later reversed. The short two-month series does not allow us to speak of a trend, and the market is still underpinned by immigration-driven demand and the lack of supply.
The role of Sareb and public bailouts
One recurring criticism is the contradiction between the claim that housing always goes up and the permanent bailout of the sector with public money through Sareb (Spain's state-owned asset management company). If the market is so buoyant, why does it need capital injections? The notaries' figure adds tension to that debate.
The ultimate question is whether this correction takes hold or fades away. Asking prices on portals such as Idealista do not yet reflect widespread declines, but some sellers are already lowering their expectations. The market is waiting for the July data.
Also available in: Deutsch
Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (12 replies).
More summaries
-
Madrid property prices fall for two consecutive months as market enters period of doubt
Madrid registers the largest monthly drop in property prices across Spain and adds a second month of declines. Is this a correction or just statistical noise?
-
Think Spain's housing bubble is bad? It's even worse in much of Europe
The housing bubble is global. We look at why property prices are destroying industrial competitiveness across Europe and in Spain.
-
Spain’s 93-Page Report on the Housing Bubble That Banks Hid
A 2010 study dissected Spain's real estate crash using public data. Its predictions on housing stock and demographics came true. Are we facing a new bubble?
-
The decline of specialist forums: what does the economy lose?
Economic forums are losing their best analysts: from 700 active members to a wasteland of bots. Data, causes and consequences of a silent exodus.
-
The opportunity cost of being single: how much is the checklist worth?
Only 10% of men under 35 own a home. A woman explains why this shapes her decision to stay single. An economic analysis of the dating market.
-
The 80-year-old grandmother and the economic paradox of wars
An 80-year-old grandmother questions the economic logic of wars: if we all have everything we need, why do conflicts that benefit only a few keep breaking out?