Junts to vote against housing decree as it stands

Junts to vote against housing decree, increasing pressure on government

Junts' refusal to back the housing decree as currently drafted sends the government back to square one. The pro-independence party has announced it will vote against, leaving the text without a viable majority. The announcement comes even after the episode dubbed the Maricarmen case, which has not shifted its stance. And it comes amid negotiations being conducted in stages: two decrees, crossed leaks, and confusion that reaches the housing minister herself.

Why does Junts reject the housing decree?

The underlying reason is electoral. Junts is playing for an electorate that, according to the most repeated reading, is that of the small Catalan property owner: owners unhappy with a framework that cuts their margin. Supporting the text would be gifting that space to those competing for the same voter. Rejecting it is not free either: the cost is paid in negotiating credibility.

The problem is that Junts has more than one open flank. On one side, it is pressured by the rise of Orriols and her space; on the other, by ERC, which could capitalise on a yes vote. It loses on both sides if it fails to do what is considered the right thing. No vote pleases everyone.

Two decrees, leaks, and no clear figures

The government is not helping to clear up doubts. The package has been split into two decrees: one that would be allowed to fail and another that is supposed to gather support. Details are being leaked drop by drop, some from one side and some from another, with no one publishing the full text. What is being announced if there are not even the numbers? The question hangs in the air without an answer.

The damage to its image is notable. If anyone struggles to understand exactly what each decree says, they are not alone: the housing minister does not seem to have it clear either. The irony is well-founded, because the text is voted on and withdrawn almost simultaneously.

Will the housing decree kill the rental market?

Housing policy looms in the background. The diagnosis from one strand of analysis is blunt: with this design, no one in their right mind will rent out their home, and the rental market suffers until it dries up. It is the classic criticism: solving the rental problem by killing the rental market. The defence of the text focuses on price, not on the owner's incentives.

The Constitutional Court, Puigdemont, and speculation about the future

Another noise hangs over the decrees. Another line of analysis maintains, without evidence and as a suspicion, that the Constitutional Court, with Conde Pumpido at the helm, will do what it can to amnesty Puigdemont. In the same logic, it is predicted that when Alianza Catalana enters Congress, Junts' weight will be diluted before a PP and Vox with more than 200 seats. These are speculations, not data.

With the current numbers, the government needs its partners, and the partners give nothing away. A housing decree that does not convince even those who defend it. And an open question: what part of the package survives when it comes time to vote.