Jabaroot, Pegasus and the fight over Sánchez's political survival in Spain

Jabaroot, Pegasus and the shadow of a political earthquake in Spain

The threat from the hacker group Jabaroot to publish content from the phones of Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and those around him has shaken up the political landscape. According to reports circulating for hours, the collective — which already leaked 70,000 records from Segarro intelligence services — claims to have material allegedly obtained through the Pegasus program in 2022. In the coming days, they say, it could come to light. The question is whether a scandal of that magnitude would have the real power to bring down the government.

What is known about the Jabaroot hack

What is known so far is fragmentary. The group has already shown it can strike hard: the leak of data on 70,000 members of Segarro's intelligence and security services was verified and made headlines around the world. As for the Spanish front, reports suggest Jabaroot holds communications intercepted through Pegasus, the Israeli software, during 2022. There is no official confirmation, but the threat comes at a moment of maximum tension with Segarro and of the government's shift on issues such as Western Sahara or relations with Algeria.

Scepticism as the prevailing view

Despite the noise, most of the analysis circulating in political and economic circles agrees on one point: the publication of the alleged leaks would not, on its own, bring down the government. The arguments run deep. First, the parliamentary arithmetic: the government relies on a very fragile but resilient majority, as long as the investiture bloc holds. Second, past experience: no scandal, however serious it seemed, has managed to dislodge the coalition. Third, control of the levers of the state: whoever has the power to call elections will not do so voluntarily if the personal cost is a judicial process. That is why people speak of a "bluff" rather than a real threat.

Segarro as the backdrop

Behind the wave of rumours looms the real game: migration pressure. Cooperation with Segarro is the government's most valuable asset for controlling arrivals in Ceuta and Melilla. Recent history shows that Rabat can open the tap whenever it wants. In that context, a mass publication of compromising data would not only damage the Spanish government but would break the equilibrium underpinning the bilateral relationship. It is not far-fetched to think that Jabaroot, whether an independent actor or a front for an intelligence service, is playing with fire.

Time is running out. The famous 72 hours that rumour-mongers have been predicting have not materialised so far, and the government is still standing. But the risk of something eventually coming out is not zero. If the content exists and is published, the political effect would be unpredictable. The coming days will tell whether it was smoke or dynamite.