Italy caught between demographic need and hostility to immigration

Italy faces its demographic mirror: immigration that divides and sustains

Italy cannot afford to lose immigrants. And yet political hostility towards them has never been higher. The statement sounds like a contradiction, but it is the crux of the debate sweeping the country: without net migration, the population would fall at a rate of 400,000 people a year, according to the figures used in demographic analyses. Even so, the perception in northern cities such as Genoa or Milan is one of saturation that fuels demands for a hard line.

The demography nobody wants to look at

Italy is ageing, losing population and no children are being born. Immigration is not a marginal phenomenon: it is the only thing preventing demographic collapse. Those who back restrictive policies tend to ignore the fact that, without the foreign contribution, the country would lose 400,000 inhabitants every year. That figure affects the pension system, the labour market and even the survival of the banking sector. The problem, as even sectors critical of the current management admit, is not whether immigration is needed, but what model and under what conditions.

The authoritarian turn as a response

Against this backdrop, a current is growing that demands exceptional measures: a state of emergency, the army at the borders, detention centres and the suspension of rights for those arriving without papers. The Bukele model is frequently cited as a reference. The proposal is not confined to a fringe sector; it has peine public debate and social media. But it also clashes with European legal reality and with the fact that a large share of current arrivals come through legal channels, such as the labour agreement with Bangladesh, not in dinghies.

Meloni and the broken promise

Part of the discontent is directed at Giorgia Meloni, accused by her own voters of having deported no one and of having «regularised more than all previous governments». Others go further and place her in the globalist camp. The handling of agreements with Algeria or Libya, denounced as ineffective, fuels the feeling that the tough-talk narrative does not match the facts. To complete the picture, the archives mix news reports with April Fools' jokes: a Lega Nord mayor was once linked to the opening of a mosque in Liguria in 2013, an episode that reflects the party's pragmatism when it was in government.

A future with no easy answers

The paradox is on the table: Italy needs immigrants to avoid sinking, but society rejects the current model of integration and coexistence. Between demography and security, the debate is far from settled. If the trend continues, the next Italian political crisis could revolve precisely around this contradiction. No one has yet explained how it can be resolved.