Is it just me, or is Trumpstein going through the same thing as Pootin in Ukronia?
An analysis of the similarities between Trump's strategy in Iran and Putin's in Ukraine: failed plans, propaganda and isolation.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Trump in Iran: the mirage that also blinded Pilingui
Washington's strategy to force regime change in Iran by taking out its supreme leader trinc the same script the Kremlin wrote for Ukraine: a surgical strike that would trigger a popular uprising. But reality has trumped the armchair maps. The ayatollah did not fall and the people did not rise, exactly as Pilingui failed to take Kyiv in 72 hours.
The plan that never worked
The intelligence analysis sold to Trumpstein was simple: kill Iran's spiritual leader and the regime would collapse like a house of cards. The protests that erupted after the assassination of General Soleimani in 2020 seemed to prove them right, but Western media coverage magnified what were in fact small groups of demonstrators. A fake photo of a woman lighting a cigarette off a portrait of the ayatollah, spread even by German public broadcaster DW, shows how wishful thinking dressed itself up as fact.
The ally factor
The crucial difference some analysts point out is that Ukraine has a solid network of allies and a constant supply of weapons and intelligence. Iran, by contrast, is isolated and surrounded by enemies. Pilingui has failed to eliminate Zelensky or his leadership, while the death of a leader in a theocracy only speeds up the succession. The Iranian state machine, though damaged, does not stop. A prolonged long-distance war, with drone and missile strikes, seems to be the new status quo.
The uncomfortable consensus
One line of analysis holds that both leaders underestimated their rivals' resilience and overestimated the appetite for internal change. In Russia, the population backs the war because it sees Ukraine as a rebellious province. In Iran, the regime closed ranks against the external threat. The dream of a colour revolution has turned into a quagmire with no plan B. The question the data does not answer is whether economic and military attrition will eventually tip the balance, or whether both conflicts are doomed to drag on indefinitely.
Related discussions in the forum
Washington's strategy to force regime change in Iran by taking out its supreme leader trinc the same script the Kremlin wrote for Ukraine: a surgical strike that would trigger a popular uprising. But reality has trumped the armchair maps. The ayatollah did not fall and the people did not rise, exactly as Pilingui failed to take Kyiv in 72 hours.
The plan that never worked
The intelligence analysis sold to Trumpstein was simple: kill Iran's spiritual leader and the regime would collapse like a house of cards. The protests that erupted after the assassination of General Soleimani in 2020 seemed to prove them right, but Western media coverage magnified what were in fact small groups of demonstrators. A fake photo of a woman lighting a cigarette off a portrait of the ayatollah, spread even by German public broadcaster DW, shows how wishful thinking dressed itself up as fact.
The ally factor
The crucial difference some analysts point out is that Ukraine has a solid network of allies and a constant supply of weapons and intelligence. Iran, by contrast, is isolated and surrounded by enemies. Pilingui has failed to eliminate Zelensky or his leadership, while the death of a leader in a theocracy only speeds up the succession. The Iranian state machine, though damaged, does not stop. A prolonged long-distance war, with drone and missile strikes, seems to be the new status quo.
The uncomfortable consensus
One line of analysis holds that both leaders underestimated their rivals' resilience and overestimated the appetite for internal change. In Russia, the population backs the war because it sees Ukraine as a rebellious province. In Iran, the regime closed ranks against the external threat. The dream of a colour revolution has turned into a quagmire with no plan B. The question the data does not answer is whether economic and military attrition will eventually tip the balance, or whether both conflicts are doomed to drag on indefinitely.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (17 replies).
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